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All Blacks 2025

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  • B Offline
    B Offline
    brodean
    replied to gt12 last edited by brodean
    #6785

    @gt12 said in All Blacks 2025:

    @brodean said in All Blacks 2025:

    Tuipulotu basically smashes the line fairly consistently when he's on and it works for us. He's very underrated imo and should be starting with Holland.

    Here are the loose forward stats from Super Rugby:

    Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
    76.7% Cam Christie
    76.5% Oliver Haig
    75.1% Semisi Tupou Ta'eiloa
    74.6% Luke Jacobson
    70.3% TK Howden
    69.8% Corey Kellow
    69.6% Ardie Savea
    68.9% Hoskins Sotutu
    68.2% Anton Segner
    67.9% Du'Plessis Kirifi

    Dominant Carry %
    56.1 Vaiolini Ekuasi
    45.7 Peter Lakai
    44.2 Veveni Lasaqa
    43.8 Luke Jacobson
    43.1 TK Howden
    39.4 Brayden Iose
    39.4 Jahrome Brown
    39.2 Simon Parker
    39.1 Sean Withy
    37.2 Cam Christie

    Gainline %
    73.6 Veveni Lasaqa
    73.5 Jahrome Brown
    72.1 Vaiolini Ekuasi
    71.1 Samipeni Finau
    70.8 Hoskins Sotutu
    69.6 Simon Parker
    68.8 Ardie Savea
    68.3 Christian Lio-Willie
    68.2 Anton Segner
    66.7 Peter Lakai

    Tackle Evasion %
    34.6 Veveni Lasaqa
    26.7 Ardie Savea
    22.8 Dalton Papali'i
    20.0 Jahrome Brown
    19.5 Luke Jacobson
    18.9 Christian Lio-Willie
    18.4 Du'Plessis Kirifi
    18.3 Brayden Iose
    16.7 Hoskins Sotutu
    15.8 Oliver Haig

    Sititi isn't in the top 10 for any of these stats. I realise he didn't play much and was coming back from injury but I will point at these metrics are percentage based.

    These are the players who appear the most.

    Luke Jacobson: (in "Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers," "Dominant Carry %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
    Ardie Savea: (in "Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
    Jahrome Brown: (in "Dominant Carry %," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
    Veveni Lasaqa: (in "Dominant Carry %," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
    Hoskins Sotutu: (in "Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").

    It would be good if there was a loose forward who appeared in top 10 for the following 3 but there isn't:

    Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
    Dominant Carry %,
    Gainline %,"

    Patrick Tuipulotu appears in top 10 for all 3 for locks.

    Forwards Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
    82.3% Xavier Numia
    76.9% Ollie Norris
    76.7% Cam Christie
    76.5% Asafo Aumua
    76.5% Oliver Haig
    75.1% Semisi Tupou Ta'eiloa
    75.0% Pasilio Tosi
    74.6% Luke Jacobson
    73.6% Patrick Tuipulotu
    73.3% Tevita Mafile'o

    Backs Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
    82.1% Julian Savea
    75.3% AJ Lam
    71.6% Timoci Tavatavanawai
    67.0% Quinn Tupaea
    65.0% Leicester Fainga'anuku ( France )
    64.0% Anton Lienert-Brown
    63.6% Peter Umaga-Jensen
    63.6% Dallas McLeod
    61.5% Billy Proctor
    59.7% Thomas Umaga-Jensen

    FYI Lasaqa hits bugger all rucks and makes bugger all tackles.

    I appreciate the stats and the percentages do make comparisons easier, but would you happen to have the carries per 80 mins as well?
    Sorry if I missed it and you had a stipulation, but a guy who commits 2 tacklers 75% of the time, but only runs twice a game isn't that useful in comparison to guy who commits 2 tacklers 60% of the time, but runs 12 times a game.

    That's a valid question worth exploring but I would suggest that if we select several players in the onfield 15 who commit 2 tacklers to a high percentage then you can share the carries across those players which keeps the opposition guessing as to who is going to be the guy that bends the line.

    gt12G 1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • No QuarterN Offline
    No QuarterN Offline
    No Quarter
    replied to taniwharugby last edited by No Quarter
    #6786

    @taniwharugby said in All Blacks 2025:

    @No-Quarter not sure you can throw much at Razor, Ryan yes, but not Razor.

    Ryan became part of Fozzies team who had not really utilised him either, so that stems back beyond Razor.

    Oh yeah it's mostly Ryan, but Razor is head coach so can tell Ryan to make it work, like Henry did to Hansen when he didn't like a players "attitude". Also, I've heard a lot of comments that Razor is in charge or at least has a lot of say on the loosies, which is probably why we have so many ineffective vanilla players that resemble him in his playing days.

    nostrildamusN 1 Reply Last reply
    2
  • nostrildamusN Offline
    nostrildamusN Offline
    nostrildamus
    replied to No Quarter last edited by
    #6787

    @No-Quarter said in All Blacks 2025:

    @taniwharugby said in All Blacks 2025:

    @No-Quarter not sure you can throw much at Razor, Ryan yes, but not Razor.

    Ryan became part of Fozzies team who had not really utilised him either, so that stems back beyond Razor.

    Oh yeah it's mostly Ryan, but Razor is head coach so can tell Ryan to make it work, like Henry did to Hansen when he didn't like a players "attitude". Also, I've heard a lot of comments that Razor is in charge or at least has a lot of say on the loosies, which is probably why we have so many ineffective vanilla players that resemble him in his playing days.

    Yes I'm pretty certain I have read somewhere Razor said he was responsible for selecting the loosies.

    B 1 Reply Last reply
    1
  • B Offline
    B Offline
    brodean
    replied to nostrildamus last edited by
    #6788

    @nostrildamus said in All Blacks 2025:

    @No-Quarter said in All Blacks 2025:

    @taniwharugby said in All Blacks 2025:

    @No-Quarter not sure you can throw much at Razor, Ryan yes, but not Razor.

    Ryan became part of Fozzies team who had not really utilised him either, so that stems back beyond Razor.

    Oh yeah it's mostly Ryan, but Razor is head coach so can tell Ryan to make it work, like Henry did to Hansen when he didn't like a players "attitude". Also, I've heard a lot of comments that Razor is in charge or at least has a lot of say on the loosies, which is probably why we have so many ineffective vanilla players that resemble him in his playing days.

    Yes I'm pretty certain I have read somewhere Razor said he was responsible for selecting the loosies.

    He definitely did at the start of last year but then Ryan said he had ultimate say over the forwards in a podcast after last years first naming. Haven't heard anything since.

    ShaquilleOatmealS nostrildamusN 2 Replies Last reply
    4
  • ShaquilleOatmealS Offline
    ShaquilleOatmealS Offline
    ShaquilleOatmeal
    replied to brodean last edited by ShaquilleOatmeal
    #6789

    @brodean said in All Blacks 2025:

    @nostrildamus said in All Blacks 2025:

    @No-Quarter said in All Blacks 2025:

    @taniwharugby said in All Blacks 2025:

    @No-Quarter not sure you can throw much at Razor, Ryan yes, but not Razor.

    Ryan became part of Fozzies team who had not really utilised him either, so that stems back beyond Razor.

    Oh yeah it's mostly Ryan, but Razor is head coach so can tell Ryan to make it work, like Henry did to Hansen when he didn't like a players "attitude". Also, I've heard a lot of comments that Razor is in charge or at least has a lot of say on the loosies, which is probably why we have so many ineffective vanilla players that resemble him in his playing days.

    Yes I'm pretty certain I have read somewhere Razor said he was responsible for selecting the loosies.

    He definitely did at the start of last year but then Ryan said he had ultimate say over the forwards in a podcast after last years first naming. Haven't heard anything since.

    “Ultimate say”? That is absolutely crazy. That’s adding to my theory that Robertson is a motivator and leaves the coaching to others.

    taniwharugbyT B 2 Replies Last reply
    5
  • taniwharugbyT Offline
    taniwharugbyT Offline
    taniwharugby
    replied to ShaquilleOatmeal last edited by
    #6790

    @ShaquilleOatmeal that line of thinking has been about for many years

    1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • B Offline
    B Offline
    brodean
    replied to ShaquilleOatmeal last edited by brodean
    #6791

    @ShaquilleOatmeal said in All Blacks 2025:

    @brodean said in All Blacks 2025:

    @nostrildamus said in All Blacks 2025:

    @No-Quarter said in All Blacks 2025:

    @taniwharugby said in All Blacks 2025:

    @No-Quarter not sure you can throw much at Razor, Ryan yes, but not Razor.

    Ryan became part of Fozzies team who had not really utilised him either, so that stems back beyond Razor.

    Oh yeah it's mostly Ryan, but Razor is head coach so can tell Ryan to make it work, like Henry did to Hansen when he didn't like a players "attitude". Also, I've heard a lot of comments that Razor is in charge or at least has a lot of say on the loosies, which is probably why we have so many ineffective vanilla players that resemble him in his playing days.

    Yes I'm pretty certain I have read somewhere Razor said he was responsible for selecting the loosies.

    He definitely did at the start of last year but then Ryan said he had ultimate say over the forwards in a podcast after last years first naming. Haven't heard anything since.

    “Ultimate say”? That is absolutely crazy. That’s adding to my theory that Robertson is a motivator and leaves the coaching to others.

    Correct.

    With regards to Ryan's selections these are my thoughts ( assume he had main say when he was with Foster too ). These are the players that debuted with him as forwards coach.

    Prop
    Tamaiti Williams
    Pasilio Tosi
    Ollie Norris

    Good selections for props.

    Lock
    Sam Darry
    Fabian Holland

    Good selections for locks.

    Loose Forwards
    Christian Lio-Willie
    Du'plessis Kirifi
    Peter Lakai
    Samipeni Finau
    Wallace Sititi

    Picking Lio-Willie and Kirifi over the likes of Papali'i, Sotutu and even Blackadder was a mistake imo. There is just too many small guys in our loose forwards mix. We have the smallest loose forwards mix in the Rugby Championship and the days of outfitting teams are over.
    .
    Picking Jacobson this year when he hasn't even been fit.

    Picking Blackadder/Jacobson last year over Sotutu/Ioane.

    Including Vaa'i - picking 5 Chiefs loose forwards this year when they fail every year in SRP finals. They fail to hold their line and they fail to get over the line against the muscled up finals defences. It's the same for Cane's loosies. They do not deliver come finals time when things are on the line. Yet our loose forwards are made up entirely of Chiefs, Canes, and one from the MP bottom dwellers.

    The fact that we currently have zero Blue's and Crusaders loose forwards despite their finals results over the last 5 years in the squad is crazy.

    Ryan has squandered our loose forward strength.

    Hooker
    George Bell
    Brodie Mcalister

    Bell played ok for the AB's but ultimately Ryan picked two guys who were poor lineout throwers compared to Ricky Riccitelli. Riccitelli should have been selected last year and this was a big mistake by Ryan because now he's signed overseas. I don't see the upside of Mcalister. Yes he's strong but he's as slow as a prop and he can't throw to save his life.

    nostrildamusN 1 Reply Last reply
    7
  • ACT CrusaderA Offline
    ACT CrusaderA Offline
    ACT Crusader
    replied to taniwharugby last edited by
    #6792

    @taniwharugby said in All Blacks 2025:

    @stodders and yet we kick so much possession away.

    A much better pass/kicking ratio by the ABs on the weekend. 1 kick for every 13 passes. Far more positive with the ball.

    B 1 Reply Last reply
    3
  • B Offline
    B Offline
    brodean
    replied to ACT Crusader last edited by
    #6793

    @ACT-Crusader said in All Blacks 2025:

    @taniwharugby said in All Blacks 2025:

    @stodders and yet we kick so much possession away.

    A much better pass/kicking ratio by the ABs on the weekend. 1 kick for every 13 passes. Far more positive with the ball.

    That was noticable during the game.

    1 Reply Last reply
    1
  • gt12G Offline
    gt12G Offline
    gt12
    replied to brodean last edited by
    #6794

    @brodean said in All Blacks 2025:

    @gt12 said in All Blacks 2025:

    @brodean said in All Blacks 2025:

    Tuipulotu basically smashes the line fairly consistently when he's on and it works for us. He's very underrated imo and should be starting with Holland.

    Here are the loose forward stats from Super Rugby:

    Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
    76.7% Cam Christie
    76.5% Oliver Haig
    75.1% Semisi Tupou Ta'eiloa
    74.6% Luke Jacobson
    70.3% TK Howden
    69.8% Corey Kellow
    69.6% Ardie Savea
    68.9% Hoskins Sotutu
    68.2% Anton Segner
    67.9% Du'Plessis Kirifi

    Dominant Carry %
    56.1 Vaiolini Ekuasi
    45.7 Peter Lakai
    44.2 Veveni Lasaqa
    43.8 Luke Jacobson
    43.1 TK Howden
    39.4 Brayden Iose
    39.4 Jahrome Brown
    39.2 Simon Parker
    39.1 Sean Withy
    37.2 Cam Christie

    Gainline %
    73.6 Veveni Lasaqa
    73.5 Jahrome Brown
    72.1 Vaiolini Ekuasi
    71.1 Samipeni Finau
    70.8 Hoskins Sotutu
    69.6 Simon Parker
    68.8 Ardie Savea
    68.3 Christian Lio-Willie
    68.2 Anton Segner
    66.7 Peter Lakai

    Tackle Evasion %
    34.6 Veveni Lasaqa
    26.7 Ardie Savea
    22.8 Dalton Papali'i
    20.0 Jahrome Brown
    19.5 Luke Jacobson
    18.9 Christian Lio-Willie
    18.4 Du'Plessis Kirifi
    18.3 Brayden Iose
    16.7 Hoskins Sotutu
    15.8 Oliver Haig

    Sititi isn't in the top 10 for any of these stats. I realise he didn't play much and was coming back from injury but I will point at these metrics are percentage based.

    These are the players who appear the most.

    Luke Jacobson: (in "Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers," "Dominant Carry %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
    Ardie Savea: (in "Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
    Jahrome Brown: (in "Dominant Carry %," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
    Veveni Lasaqa: (in "Dominant Carry %," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
    Hoskins Sotutu: (in "Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").

    It would be good if there was a loose forward who appeared in top 10 for the following 3 but there isn't:

    Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
    Dominant Carry %,
    Gainline %,"

    Patrick Tuipulotu appears in top 10 for all 3 for locks.

    Forwards Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
    82.3% Xavier Numia
    76.9% Ollie Norris
    76.7% Cam Christie
    76.5% Asafo Aumua
    76.5% Oliver Haig
    75.1% Semisi Tupou Ta'eiloa
    75.0% Pasilio Tosi
    74.6% Luke Jacobson
    73.6% Patrick Tuipulotu
    73.3% Tevita Mafile'o

    Backs Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
    82.1% Julian Savea
    75.3% AJ Lam
    71.6% Timoci Tavatavanawai
    67.0% Quinn Tupaea
    65.0% Leicester Fainga'anuku ( France )
    64.0% Anton Lienert-Brown
    63.6% Peter Umaga-Jensen
    63.6% Dallas McLeod
    61.5% Billy Proctor
    59.7% Thomas Umaga-Jensen

    FYI Lasaqa hits bugger all rucks and makes bugger all tackles.

    I appreciate the stats and the percentages do make comparisons easier, but would you happen to have the carries per 80 mins as well?
    Sorry if I missed it and you had a stipulation, but a guy who commits 2 tacklers 75% of the time, but only runs twice a game isn't that useful in comparison to guy who commits 2 tacklers 60% of the time, but runs 12 times a game.

    That's a valid question worth exploring but I would suggest that if we select several players in the onfield 15 who commit 2 tacklers to a high percentage then you can share the carries across those players which keeps the opposition guessing as to who is going to be the guy that bends the line.

    Two points:

    1. Issue with reversion to the mean

    My reason for asking is that if a guy only has two runs a game for 75% gainline, versus another with 12 for 65%, we should likely expect that the first guy will go down to 65% (or worse) as his number of runs increases.

    Equally, there could be guys with 50% gainline on two runs who could rise to 75% if they had 12 runs.

    1. Sharing the carries

    Given that teams play to specific patterns, you'll need certain players with different skillsets, so while I agree that - all other things being constant - running threats across the park are important, in reality we'll have some guys who do a lot of the heavy lifting in that area. Three really effective ball runners across a forward pack may be much better than 8 average ball runners, assuming there is an attack strategy built to put them in the right places.

    B boobooB 2 Replies Last reply
    0
  • H Offline
    H Offline
    hikastags
    replied to Frank last edited by
    #6795

    @Frank said in All Blacks 2025:

    Who are the hardest running loose forwards in NZ?
    As in full steam ahead in a straight line, no jinking.
    Do we have any?

    Semisi Tupou Ta'eiloa, Brayden Iose, Dom Gardiner, Cam Christie come to mind.

    F 1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • nostrildamusN Offline
    nostrildamusN Offline
    nostrildamus
    replied to brodean last edited by
    #6796

    @brodean said in All Blacks 2025:

    @nostrildamus said in All Blacks 2025:

    @No-Quarter said in All Blacks 2025:

    @taniwharugby said in All Blacks 2025:

    @No-Quarter not sure you can throw much at Razor, Ryan yes, but not Razor.

    Ryan became part of Fozzies team who had not really utilised him either, so that stems back beyond Razor.

    Oh yeah it's mostly Ryan, but Razor is head coach so can tell Ryan to make it work, like Henry did to Hansen when he didn't like a players "attitude". Also, I've heard a lot of comments that Razor is in charge or at least has a lot of say on the loosies, which is probably why we have so many ineffective vanilla players that resemble him in his playing days.

    Yes I'm pretty certain I have read somewhere Razor said he was responsible for selecting the loosies.

    He definitely did at the start of last year but then Ryan said he had ultimate say over the forwards in a podcast after last years first naming. Haven't heard anything since.

    Thanks for the update.

    1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • nostrildamusN Offline
    nostrildamusN Offline
    nostrildamus
    replied to brodean last edited by
    #6797

    @brodean said in All Blacks 2025:

    Picking Jacobson this year when he hasn't even been fit.

    It might be even worse than that. Bringing Wallace back too early, playing Scooter who may have been nursing a longterm injury, playing a quickly injured Blackadder in 2024, a distant love affair with Shannon, Ryan's weak point seems to me to be loose forward selection.

    1 Reply Last reply
    3
  • B Offline
    B Offline
    brodean
    replied to gt12 last edited by brodean
    #6798

    @gt12 said in All Blacks 2025:

    @brodean said in All Blacks 2025:

    @gt12 said in All Blacks 2025:

    @brodean said in All Blacks 2025:

    Tuipulotu basically smashes the line fairly consistently when he's on and it works for us. He's very underrated imo and should be starting with Holland.

    Here are the loose forward stats from Super Rugby:

    Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
    76.7% Cam Christie
    76.5% Oliver Haig
    75.1% Semisi Tupou Ta'eiloa
    74.6% Luke Jacobson
    70.3% TK Howden
    69.8% Corey Kellow
    69.6% Ardie Savea
    68.9% Hoskins Sotutu
    68.2% Anton Segner
    67.9% Du'Plessis Kirifi

    Dominant Carry %
    56.1 Vaiolini Ekuasi
    45.7 Peter Lakai
    44.2 Veveni Lasaqa
    43.8 Luke Jacobson
    43.1 TK Howden
    39.4 Brayden Iose
    39.4 Jahrome Brown
    39.2 Simon Parker
    39.1 Sean Withy
    37.2 Cam Christie

    Gainline %
    73.6 Veveni Lasaqa
    73.5 Jahrome Brown
    72.1 Vaiolini Ekuasi
    71.1 Samipeni Finau
    70.8 Hoskins Sotutu
    69.6 Simon Parker
    68.8 Ardie Savea
    68.3 Christian Lio-Willie
    68.2 Anton Segner
    66.7 Peter Lakai

    Tackle Evasion %
    34.6 Veveni Lasaqa
    26.7 Ardie Savea
    22.8 Dalton Papali'i
    20.0 Jahrome Brown
    19.5 Luke Jacobson
    18.9 Christian Lio-Willie
    18.4 Du'Plessis Kirifi
    18.3 Brayden Iose
    16.7 Hoskins Sotutu
    15.8 Oliver Haig

    Sititi isn't in the top 10 for any of these stats. I realise he didn't play much and was coming back from injury but I will point at these metrics are percentage based.

    These are the players who appear the most.

    Luke Jacobson: (in "Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers," "Dominant Carry %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
    Ardie Savea: (in "Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
    Jahrome Brown: (in "Dominant Carry %," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
    Veveni Lasaqa: (in "Dominant Carry %," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
    Hoskins Sotutu: (in "Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").

    It would be good if there was a loose forward who appeared in top 10 for the following 3 but there isn't:

    Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
    Dominant Carry %,
    Gainline %,"

    Patrick Tuipulotu appears in top 10 for all 3 for locks.

    Forwards Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
    82.3% Xavier Numia
    76.9% Ollie Norris
    76.7% Cam Christie
    76.5% Asafo Aumua
    76.5% Oliver Haig
    75.1% Semisi Tupou Ta'eiloa
    75.0% Pasilio Tosi
    74.6% Luke Jacobson
    73.6% Patrick Tuipulotu
    73.3% Tevita Mafile'o

    Backs Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
    82.1% Julian Savea
    75.3% AJ Lam
    71.6% Timoci Tavatavanawai
    67.0% Quinn Tupaea
    65.0% Leicester Fainga'anuku ( France )
    64.0% Anton Lienert-Brown
    63.6% Peter Umaga-Jensen
    63.6% Dallas McLeod
    61.5% Billy Proctor
    59.7% Thomas Umaga-Jensen

    FYI Lasaqa hits bugger all rucks and makes bugger all tackles.

    I appreciate the stats and the percentages do make comparisons easier, but would you happen to have the carries per 80 mins as well?
    Sorry if I missed it and you had a stipulation, but a guy who commits 2 tacklers 75% of the time, but only runs twice a game isn't that useful in comparison to guy who commits 2 tacklers 60% of the time, but runs 12 times a game.

    That's a valid question worth exploring but I would suggest that if we select several players in the onfield 15 who commit 2 tacklers to a high percentage then you can share the carries across those players which keeps the opposition guessing as to who is going to be the guy that bends the line.

    Two points:

    1. Issue with reversion to the mean

    My reason for asking is that if a guy only has two runs a game for 75% gainline, versus another with 12 for 65%, we should likely expect that the first guy will go down to 65% (or worse) as his number of runs increases.

    Equally, there could be guys with 50% gainline on two runs who could rise to 75% if they had 12 runs.

    1. Sharing the carries

    Given that teams play to specific patterns, you'll need certain players with different skillsets, so while I agree that - all other things being constant - running threats across the park are important, in reality we'll have some guys who do a lot of the heavy lifting in that area. Three really effective ball runners across a forward pack may be much better than 8 average ball runners, assuming there is an attack strategy built to put them in the right places.

    Look I pretty much agree with you on both points and certainly I'm not suggesting we have 8 average ball runners.

    Personally I think we should have some players that compliment each other.

    If you have a tight five like the following none of these players are effective close quarter runners that commit tacklers. Taylor is good out wide.

    De Groot, Taylor, Lomax/Newell, Barrett, Vaa'i

    One or two guys like Norris, Tosi, Tuipulotu, and Taukei'aho should be in the starting line up and then the bench guys should have a mix of some ball runners and the ruck guys.

    Guys like De Groot should not be carrying basically. He should be hitting rucks and making tackles outside of his set piece duties and mauling - like Owen Franks.

    De Groot has made 26 carries this year for 11 metres or 40cm per carry. Out of the 21 forwards who have featured this year De Groot has made the 6th most forward carries and the 6th most passes.

    He just appears in the attack pattern far to often.

    MN5M KruseK 2 Replies Last reply
    6
  • MN5M Online
    MN5M Online
    MN5
    replied to brodean last edited by
    #6799

    @brodean said in All Blacks 2025:

    @gt12 said in All Blacks 2025:

    @brodean said in All Blacks 2025:

    @gt12 said in All Blacks 2025:

    @brodean said in All Blacks 2025:

    Tuipulotu basically smashes the line fairly consistently when he's on and it works for us. He's very underrated imo and should be starting with Holland.

    Here are the loose forward stats from Super Rugby:

    Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
    76.7% Cam Christie
    76.5% Oliver Haig
    75.1% Semisi Tupou Ta'eiloa
    74.6% Luke Jacobson
    70.3% TK Howden
    69.8% Corey Kellow
    69.6% Ardie Savea
    68.9% Hoskins Sotutu
    68.2% Anton Segner
    67.9% Du'Plessis Kirifi

    Dominant Carry %
    56.1 Vaiolini Ekuasi
    45.7 Peter Lakai
    44.2 Veveni Lasaqa
    43.8 Luke Jacobson
    43.1 TK Howden
    39.4 Brayden Iose
    39.4 Jahrome Brown
    39.2 Simon Parker
    39.1 Sean Withy
    37.2 Cam Christie

    Gainline %
    73.6 Veveni Lasaqa
    73.5 Jahrome Brown
    72.1 Vaiolini Ekuasi
    71.1 Samipeni Finau
    70.8 Hoskins Sotutu
    69.6 Simon Parker
    68.8 Ardie Savea
    68.3 Christian Lio-Willie
    68.2 Anton Segner
    66.7 Peter Lakai

    Tackle Evasion %
    34.6 Veveni Lasaqa
    26.7 Ardie Savea
    22.8 Dalton Papali'i
    20.0 Jahrome Brown
    19.5 Luke Jacobson
    18.9 Christian Lio-Willie
    18.4 Du'Plessis Kirifi
    18.3 Brayden Iose
    16.7 Hoskins Sotutu
    15.8 Oliver Haig

    Sititi isn't in the top 10 for any of these stats. I realise he didn't play much and was coming back from injury but I will point at these metrics are percentage based.

    These are the players who appear the most.

    Luke Jacobson: (in "Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers," "Dominant Carry %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
    Ardie Savea: (in "Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
    Jahrome Brown: (in "Dominant Carry %," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
    Veveni Lasaqa: (in "Dominant Carry %," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").
    Hoskins Sotutu: (in "Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers," "Gainline %," and "Tackle Evasion %").

    It would be good if there was a loose forward who appeared in top 10 for the following 3 but there isn't:

    Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
    Dominant Carry %,
    Gainline %,"

    Patrick Tuipulotu appears in top 10 for all 3 for locks.

    Forwards Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
    82.3% Xavier Numia
    76.9% Ollie Norris
    76.7% Cam Christie
    76.5% Asafo Aumua
    76.5% Oliver Haig
    75.1% Semisi Tupou Ta'eiloa
    75.0% Pasilio Tosi
    74.6% Luke Jacobson
    73.6% Patrick Tuipulotu
    73.3% Tevita Mafile'o

    Backs Carries Committing 2+ Tacklers
    82.1% Julian Savea
    75.3% AJ Lam
    71.6% Timoci Tavatavanawai
    67.0% Quinn Tupaea
    65.0% Leicester Fainga'anuku ( France )
    64.0% Anton Lienert-Brown
    63.6% Peter Umaga-Jensen
    63.6% Dallas McLeod
    61.5% Billy Proctor
    59.7% Thomas Umaga-Jensen

    FYI Lasaqa hits bugger all rucks and makes bugger all tackles.

    I appreciate the stats and the percentages do make comparisons easier, but would you happen to have the carries per 80 mins as well?
    Sorry if I missed it and you had a stipulation, but a guy who commits 2 tacklers 75% of the time, but only runs twice a game isn't that useful in comparison to guy who commits 2 tacklers 60% of the time, but runs 12 times a game.

    That's a valid question worth exploring but I would suggest that if we select several players in the onfield 15 who commit 2 tacklers to a high percentage then you can share the carries across those players which keeps the opposition guessing as to who is going to be the guy that bends the line.

    Two points:

    1. Issue with reversion to the mean

    My reason for asking is that if a guy only has two runs a game for 75% gainline, versus another with 12 for 65%, we should likely expect that the first guy will go down to 65% (or worse) as his number of runs increases.

    Equally, there could be guys with 50% gainline on two runs who could rise to 75% if they had 12 runs.

    1. Sharing the carries

    Given that teams play to specific patterns, you'll need certain players with different skillsets, so while I agree that - all other things being constant - running threats across the park are important, in reality we'll have some guys who do a lot of the heavy lifting in that area. Three really effective ball runners across a forward pack may be much better than 8 average ball runners, assuming there is an attack strategy built to put them in the right places.

    Look I pretty much agree with you on both points and certainly I'm not suggesting we have 8 average ball runners.

    Personally I think we should have some players that compliment each other.

    If you have a tight five like the following none of these players are effective close quarter runners that commit tacklers. Taylor is good out wide.

    De Groot, Taylor, Lomax/Newell, Barrett, Vaa'i

    One or two guys like Norris, Tosi, Tuipulotu, and Taukei'aho should be in the starting line up and then the bench guys should have a mix of some ball runners and the ruck guys.

    Guys like De Groot should not be carrying basically. He should be hitting rucks and making tackles outside of his set piece duties and mauling - like Owen Franks.

    > De Groot has made 26 carries this year for 11 metres or 40cm per carry. Out of the 21 forwards who have featured this year De Groot has made the 6th most forward carries and the 6th most passes.

    He just appears in the attack pattern far to often.

    De Groot is a tall brick shithouse who I imagine is an absolute beast in the weight room.

    Why is it some guys have as much impact with ball in hand as a fly on a windscreen ?

    1 Reply Last reply
    1
  • F Offline
    F Offline
    Frank
    replied to hikastags last edited by
    #6800

    @hikastags said in All Blacks 2025:

    @Frank said in All Blacks 2025:

    Who are the hardest running loose forwards in NZ?
    As in full steam ahead in a straight line, no jinking.
    Do we have any?

    Semisi Tupou Ta'eiloa, Brayden Iose, Dom Gardiner, Cam Christie come to mind.

    Josh Beehre is pretty straight ahead.
    Slightly undersized high workrate locks like him should look at playing 6 at international level.

    nostrildamusN 1 Reply Last reply
    6
  • nostrildamusN Offline
    nostrildamusN Offline
    nostrildamus
    replied to Frank last edited by
    #6801

    @Frank said in All Blacks 2025:

    @hikastags said in All Blacks 2025:

    @Frank said in All Blacks 2025:

    Who are the hardest running loose forwards in NZ?
    As in full steam ahead in a straight line, no jinking.
    Do we have any?

    Semisi Tupou Ta'eiloa, Brayden Iose, Dom Gardiner, Cam Christie come to mind.

    Josh Beehre is pretty straight ahead.
    Slightly undersized high workrate locks like him should look at playing 6 at international level.

    I was wondering about him.
    He's about Patrick's size though, isn't he? Minus 2 kg.

    1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • boobooB Offline
    boobooB Offline
    booboo
    replied to gt12 last edited by
    #6802

    @gt12 said in All Blacks 2025:

    two runs a game for 75% gainline,

    Is that possible?

    gt12G 1 Reply Last reply
    3
  • gt12G Offline
    gt12G Offline
    gt12
    replied to booboo last edited by
    #6803

    @booboo said in All Blacks 2025:

    @gt12 said in All Blacks 2025:

    two runs a game for 75% gainline,

    Is that possible?

    Firstly, shut up pedant.

    Secondly, yeah, if he plays 4 games, has 8 runs over those games, and gets over the gain line 6 times.

    1 Reply Last reply
    5
  • P Offline
    P Offline
    pakman
    replied to reprobate last edited by pakman
    #6804

    @reprobate said in All Blacks 2025:

    @nostrildamus Parker prior to this year I remember copping a bit of shit for not going hard enough into contact - big frame, bit soft. I don't think he's soft myself at all, and think he was pretty good in Super rugby, but I'm not sure he's got the explosiveness/pace to sit guys on their arse with ball in hand at test level.

    Eddie Jones was rhapsodising over Parker’s clean outs in first half of Bled 1. The recipients certainly stayed cleaned!

    nostrildamusN 1 Reply Last reply
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