All Blacks XV 2025
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@nostrildamus said in All Blacks XV 2025:
@pakman said in All Blacks XV 2025:
With Beehre promoted XV very low on locks?
A veritable shortage.
Who's next in line and available, Haig? McWhannel? Or does Howden just wear the 19 jersey going into the next game.
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@WoodysRFC said in All Blacks XV 2025:
@nostrildamus said in All Blacks XV 2025:
@pakman said in All Blacks XV 2025:
With Beehre promoted XV very low on locks?
A veritable shortage.
Who's next in line and available, Haig? McWhannel? Or does Howden just wear the 19 jersey going into the next game.
Against Scotland? You meant Laghlan McWhannell? They'd appreciate someone with the name that came to mean 'the unruly clans'.
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@nostrildamus said in All Blacks XV 2025:
@Crazy-Horse said in All Blacks XV 2025:
My eyes might be deceiving, but I am not convinced Tangitau is a fast as we think.
Not so sure, there's some fairly slow thinkers on here.
Ha?
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@ARHS said in All Blacks XV 2025:
@taniwharugby said in All Blacks XV 2025:
@Grooter yeah if we are willing to overlook a wingers lack of pace...
Plus, Tangitau can be taught new.systems and hopefully learn, Reece ain't getting faster, ever.
And maybe he can be taught how to force the ball properly too
Hopefully not by Ioane or Jordan.
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Funny how at the start of the year with no injuries, lock was probably the position with the most depth. We are being exposed for not developing enough young players behind Whitelock and Retallick over the last 3-4 years. Holland, Lord, and Darry will need as much test match exposure as possible
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@jimmyb said in All Blacks XV 2025:
Funny how at the start of the year with no injuries, lock was probably the position with the most depth. We are being exposed for not developing enough young players behind Whitelock and Retallick over the last 3-4 years. Holland, Lord, and Darry will need as much test match exposure as possible
Lord did okay on the weekend. Holland and Darry have shown they can do a job
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@jimmyb said in All Blacks XV 2025:
Funny how at the start of the year with no injuries, lock was probably the position with the most depth. We are being exposed for not developing enough young players behind Whitelock and Retallick over the last 3-4 years. Holland, Lord, and Darry will need as much test match exposure as possible
We couldn't develop Holland earlier., and Lord and Darry have had injuries.
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@Trig said in All Blacks XV 2025:
@pakman said in All Blacks XV 2025:
With Beehre promoted XV very low on locks?
My understanding is he is just training cover for the week with the All Blacks. Could still be released to play xv. Although actually I highly doubt that
Just three days, I believe.
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@Tim said in All Blacks XV 2025:
What other locks are available? Antonio Shalfoon? Or is he injured?
Not many options back in NZ. McWhannell has been unavailable since Rd 1 of the NPC, and likely would have been in the original squad if fit.
The two locks left are replacements themselves. Howden would have to be the backup lock for the England A game.
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@Trig said in All Blacks XV 2025:
@pakman said in All Blacks XV 2025:
With Beehre promoted XV very low on locks?
My understanding is he is just training cover for the week with the All Blacks. Could still be released to play xv. Although actually I highly doubt that
Yeah I’d be surprised if Josh isn’t starting for the AB XV this weekend barring any training injuries in the AB camp.
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Next opponent Uruguay v Portugal -
Got to love a 65m runaway try by Uruguay's reserve Loosehead (5m 30s in)
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During the second half of Saturday’s AB XV game against England A, former England and Bath outside back Matt Banahan made an astute observation while commenting on the game. “There’s definitely been a tactical change for All Blacks XV in the second half with the high cross-fields to catch the wingers under the ball, so they don’t have the open field [to counter-attack] and these centre-field kicks from 9.” As these words were leaving his mouth, Havili threw a beautiful bridge pass over the head of England A winger Noah Caluori to put Sevu Reece into space. Just seconds later, Reihana would finish the move by dotting down underneath the post.
So why did this tactical shift take place? Banahan already mentioned the first part: by targeting the kick space on the edge, the AB XV could take away one of England A’s main threats in the first half, their counter-attacking platform from centre-field, through which they set up their dangerous attacking shapes. Because while England A fumbled their way through that first half by dropping nearly every pass, they had created several line break opportunities, with only their lack of hands preventing further scores.
But there is another, more attacking reason for these kicks as well. This second reason is more concerned with the opposition rush defence – specifically, the role of the backfield cover and the outside defensive shooter – and how the AB XV attack could circumvent these back 3 defenders. It also brings the midfield bridge pass back into play: simply passing over the rush defence isn’t enough to actually break down this defensive structure. You also need to manipulate the numbers and field position of the opposition defence beforehand.
In this sense, the AB XV has shown some nice attacking nuances and developments which may well be implemented soon with the senior side. So what were these nuances?
Breaking down the AB XV Reihana try
While the Reihana try at first glance might look like a relatively straightforward backs move – setting up a few rucks before throwing the wide ball – there are a number of components to it which are crucial for the move to work. They are crucial because they change the way England A is able to defend the strike. These 3 components are: 1. The Fakatava box kick, 2. The midfield ruck, and 3. The AB XV backline realignment to the openside.The kick
After an AB XV scrum in their own half, the All Blacks XV cart it up once before Fakatava sets up the box kick into England A territory.Fakatava box kick
While this kick might seem innocuous enough, the purpose of it is threefold. The AB XV want to (a) regather possession, (b) bring the England A fullback, Josh Hodge, into play and pull him out of the backfield cover and (c) force the England A first five, Charlie Atkinson, into the fullback defensive positioning on the openside.
All of these targets are met as Hodge is unable to gather cleanly under pressure from Tangitau, with the England A fullback now brought out of position and Atkinson now moving into the open backfield, to cover the opposite edge.
Atkinson (10, red) is moving to the defensive openside to cover the right edge. Meanwhile, Reihana (22, black) is already organizing the shape for the Havili cut-out ball 2 phases laterThe midfield ruck
After the ball is regathered from the box kick by Fakatava himself, the temptation might have been to immediately swing the ball wide, in order to exploit any potential defensive chaos. Fakatava, however, resists such temptation and instead takes the ball into contact, setting up a ruck on the right edge.We can already see Reihana, in the picture above, taking matters into his hands and organizing the attacking shape for the phases to follow. After the Fakatava ruck, another two rucks will be set up, each one moving closer and closer to the centre of the field, until the ball is eventually presented straight in the middle.
Setting up midfield ruck
This, again, is an intentional ploy. The goal here is twofold: (a) to split the England A defence down the middle, so they don’t have a full defensive line to rush with, and (b) to realign the backline in anticipation of the attacking launch from the midfield ruck. While the forwards are moving the ball to the middle of the field, the backs are all realigning to the left edge, so that when the midfield ruck is set up, we get this picture.
Nearly the entire backline – Havili, Ennor, Reece, Tangitau, Jacomb and Reihana – are bunched together in a 20 metre-channel from the side line, in anticipation of the outside breakThis brings together two things: pace and ballhandling. So when the outside break is made via the Havili bridge pass to Reece, the outside channels are flooded with pacy players who can execute any numerical mismatches with ease.
The backline realignment
It is now that the risk of the extra rucks in midfield starts paying off: the AB XV have huge support numbers which can flood the channel after Reece has made the outside break. Both Jacomb and Reihana already start sprinting towards the space on Reece’s inside shoulder even while Havili’s bridge pass is still in the air.Havili bridge pass
This also further reinforces the value of the box kick: the England A backfield cover defence has the responsibility of shutting down any outside breaks, yet Atkinson, as a first five rather than an experienced defensive fullback, is slow in closing down the space for Reece to run into. While Josh Hodge isn’t a good defender by any means either, the logic of the kick is still sound: it forces the defensive backfield to move and realign, which can make the eventual exploitation of the backfield space a bit easier.
Meanwhile, the value of the midfield ruck is also clearly visible: the English defensive line was strongly pushing forward so, after the outside shooter was passed by through the bridge pass, they didn’t have the time or space to catch up to the AB XV support runners who were already in motion. If the AB XV had gone wide immediately from their ruck all the way on the edge, any break on the opposite edge would’ve been faced with a defensive scramble in full-motion, which makes it much harder to outpace.
The English defensive line is still in structure rather than in scramble mode. This has the effect that they’re miles away when any line break is made on the edgeThe value of these particular components – box kick, midfield ruck, backline realignment – becomes even further emphasized when we compare it to a similar attacking launch point, performed by the senior AB side in Wellington against the Springboks in September.
Getting swallowed by the scramble
A few months ago, I wrote about that Wellington Test that it showed a lack of clarity in the AB game plan in its attempted combination of tactics and technique: “Tactically, there are too many links in the chain and technically, there are not enough links that can do what is asked of them.”This referred to a specific launch play in the first minutes of the game, where the ABs set up a ruck on the right edge and tried to go wide immediately.
Wellington edge ruck launch
The differences to the AB XV strike are considerable: (1) there is no use of the box kick to manipulate backfield cover and draw Bok defenders up, (2) there is no midfield ruck to split the Bok rush, and (3) there is no backline realignment to the open to put pace and support into the space after the outside break.
This was the eventual result:
When Leroy Carter (11, black) receives the ball on the edge, he is already covered by the Bok first five – Feinberg-Mngomezulu (green) – as the latter didn’t have to realign in his backfield coverage due to a lack of kicking. The Bok defensive line is also still ahead of the ball and is in full movement.
And rather than a full backline in support – remember the full AB XV backline inside a 20 metre radius around the ball – the closest players to Carter are Sititi, Jordie Barrett and Tuipulotu. Beauden Barrett, McKenzie, Proctor and Will Jordan are still around the middle of the field or even further away, and are in no position whatsoever to help exploit any line break that is made. Even if Carter is able to beat his man, there are no means for the ABs to actually finish any break that is made.
Instead, what the AB XV have done, to combat principles of rush defence, is to borrow from the Wallaby game plan in Ellis Park. Set up midfield rucks to split the Bok defence, use the bridge pass to get over the outside-in defensive shooter and flood the outside channel with pace and support (Frost, O’Connor and Wright are all in close support around Jorgensen).
JOC Ellis Park bridge pass
It is good to see that NZ coaches aren’t too proud to borrow what works from others and to shelve those plans – edge ruck launch platforms against rush D – that simply haven’t produced the goods.
I ended the Wellington-piece with the following thoughts: “Now firmly in the bottom of TRC skillsets, it is time for NZR to seriously address either the way they want to play the game or the manner in which they build their skillsets, as right now both facets of the game aren’t complementary of each other. While Wellington might not represent the end of future NZ rugby supremacy, it certainly signals a fork in the road, with administrators needing to make decisions and take action.”
With the tactical nuances and developments put forward by the AB XV, hope springs that administrators and coaches in the game have indeed taken note. And while it still remains to be seen whether the senior coaching team is pragmatic enough to swallow some of its pride and adapt, the AB XV have shown that rugby pragmatism in NZ rugby certainly isn’t dead yet.
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@pakman said in All Blacks XV 2025:
Wow, that’s a lot to take in @mauss! I only saw highlights but the attacking structure was a notch up from first game, especially in H2. Fakatava stood out for me in highlights, which, as extensively noted elsewhere, often provide a misleading view.
I don’t think it was perfect by any means – the AB XV didn’t hold on to the ball enough, in my view – but there was some really clever stuff in there, especially from set piece (there was a nice move from an attacking scrum as well in the first half – ball back inside to trailing blindside (Flanders) – which really should’ve resulted in a try).
I just liked that they took some Schmidt-plays and implemented it into their own game. Like I said, shows a nice bit of pragmatism.
Fakatava was good. Stuck to the game plan – threw another bridge pass which resulted in a try shortly before the end – and was accurate in his execution and decision-making. He has a real shot at usurping Ratima next year, if he continues his good form in Super Rugby.
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@Mauss said in All Blacks XV 2025:
@sparky said in All Blacks XV 2025:
Really short of specialist Locks. That might not be an issue against the Barbarians or Uruguay, but it will be against England A.
Yeah, I had a similar thought as well, which I tried to work out by sifting through some of the NPC numbers.
Lineout
None of Ah Kuoi, Walker-Leawere, Beehre, Delany or Hannah are particularly dominant lineout players, either on their own feed or on opposition ball. Ah Kuoi is probably the biggest threat for opposition ball but his 0.7 steals per 80 minutes during the NPC was behind Wellington’s Akira Ieremia (0.8), North Harbour’s Tristyn Cook (0.9) and Canterbury’s Liam Jack. While the latter only had limited minutes in the NPC (233), he proved to be a big problem for opposition lineouts (1.7 steals per 80 minutes). Jack could be a real player to watch, if he’s able to continue producing these kinds of lineout numbers in the future.On own feeds, it is not surprising that tall timber provides the most reliable target. Only three players averaged over 5 lineout takes per game, and 2 out of those 3 were 2m+ (Josh Lord and Will Tucker). Mitch Dunshea of Southland is the other but his proficiency is perhaps more to be explained by Southland’s lack of genuine lineout targets than his own lineout expertise, as Southland had the worst lineout success rate in the comp, at 77%.
Lineout might prove to be an issue for the AB XV, without easy banker options like Lord or Will Tucker in the squadThis lack of lineout proficiency might also explain the inclusion of a player like Kaylum Boshier who is, alongside Devan Flanders, TK Howden and (the unincluded) Jacob Norris, one of the best and most proficient lineout loose forwards in the competition.
Carrying
In other aspects of locking play, it will be interesting to see how SR and NPC form can be translated to what is most likely to be tougher opposition. While Walker-Leawere had a real mixed season so far, both at Super Rugby and NPC level, what he does offer is carrying ability, both in terms of number of carries and post-contact metres made. With the Hurricane lock now injured, the carrying onus will most likely fall on a player like Jamie Hannah, who has shown an ability throughout the NPC to make genuine inroads (24.2 post-contact metres made per 80 minutes).
With the loss of Walker-Leawere, Jamie Hannah now presents as the main running threat, with Beehre and Delany presenting less of a carrying optionThe question remains whether Hannah will remain as effective against the bigger bodies of international opposition. It makes one wonder whether some heavier players – like Fiti Sa, Aisake Vakasiuola or Akira Ieremia – might not have been an intriguing option, considering their more considerable bulk. Perhaps Ieremia isn’t available due to his Japanese contract but the other two are promising young players who, as the stats show, can already contribute in a specific way. While they are raw in other areas, it might’ve been a good idea to see how they would’ve responded to a more international environment.
Defence
While someone like Beehre had a great second half of the SRP season, he wasn’t able to really continue that form for Auckland, making both less carries (8.1) and post-contact metres (15.5) per 80 minutes compared to Super Rugby (11.1 C/80 and 22.2 PCM/80). His defensive involvements were also higher at Super Rugby level, making nearly 15 tackles per 80 minutes for the Blues compared to only 12.8 for Auckland. He will have to show on tour that his not-so-great NPC was just a bump in his rugby road, as there are other players who are making compelling cases with their NPC form.
None of the real volume-tacklers were selected for the AB XV, with someone like Shalfoon being perhaps a tad unluckyZach Gallagher stands alone in terms of his defensive involvements per 80 minutes, further emphasizing the great season he had for Canterbury both at lock and at blindside. He’s another, like Ieremia, who was probably not considered due to his Japanese contract. Players like Antonio Shalfoon, Jack Lee and Tristyn Cook also proved to be highly involved defensively, providing a solid rate of dominant tackling as well.
Looking at the numbers, North Harbour’s Tristyn Cook is an interesting player to keep a watch on for the future. A player like Cook is a fascinating example of how being confronted with certain stats can trigger a case of cognitive dissonance. Whenever I’ve watched Cook play for Harbour this season, I mostly noticed his ill-discipline and lack of breakdown efficacy. And yet, when putting these three graphs next to each other, Tristyn Cook is someone who consistently appears in a positive manner, whether it’s as a lineout threat (0.9 steals per 80 minutes), a carry option (23.9 post-contact metres made per 80 minutes) or as a highly involved defender (over 14 tackles made per 80 minutes).
That’s not to say that his lack of discipline and his, at times, ineffective physicality aren’t an issue, especially if he wants to focus on blindside. But what it does show is that, if Cook can put on a few more pounds while retaining his mobility and involvements, he could become a very good player, whether it’s in the engine room or amongst the loose forwards.
Summary
The selection protocol of the AB XV, when looking at a specific area like lock, seems to mirror the AB selection strategy, which is to pick allrounders rather than specialists. Players like Ah Kuoi, Beehre, Delany, and Hannah are quite solid in most areas without necessarily excelling in a specific area (Walker-Leawere being perhaps the sole exception here).If the focus would’ve been on certain areas of excellence, players like Will Tucker (lineout takes), Aisake Vakasiuola (carrying and post-contact metres) and Antonio Shalfoon (dominant tackling) might’ve been selected instead. While it makes players less interchangeable, it has the benefit of clarity in role distribution, with every player knowing exactly what their main responsibilities are.
Right now, the NZR selection strategy seems to rather work around having all bases covered, instead of targeting particular strengths and weaknesses. It feels like an exercise in raising the floor of performances rather than looking to maximize the team’s ceiling. Whether that’s a particularly wise strategy, I’ll leave that aside until after the tour.
Would like to have seen Vakasiuola get some exposure, even as an apprentice.
Haig's stats point to him focussing on 6?
