All Blacks vs Wallabies Bledisloe II

game_film

@gt12 Good point re: shot clock. Reckon he needs a few less degrees on the upward angle of the smile. Should get him back on track.

game_film

One for the defence gurus: Was Oz getting space on the edges a consequence of them tightening up their structure to limit JAS? Another quiet one for him.

Gunner

@game_film said in All Blacks vs Wallabies Bledisloe II:

One for the defence gurus: Was Oz getting space on the edges a consequence of them tightening up their structure to limit JAS? Another quiet one for him.

I’m no defence guru, but we did appear to be defending very tight. We were leaving the wide channel open and relying on our winger to move fast to shut the space down.

Bones

@Gunner said in All Blacks vs Wallabies Bledisloe II:

@game_film said in All Blacks vs Wallabies Bledisloe II:

One for the defence gurus: Was Oz getting space on the edges a consequence of them tightening up their structure to limit JAS? Another quiet one for him.

I’m no defence guru, but we did appear to be defending very tight. We were leaving the wide channel open and relying on our winger to move fast to shut the space down.

In theory, it's not a bad plan. Expend more of the wingers energy, in a traditional defence plan they'll be left with energy to spare. Make it easier for inside defence to do their job.

In practical terms it seems to be leading everyone to disorganised scrambling back from one side to the other.

gt12

@canefan said in All Blacks vs Wallabies Bledisloe II:

@gt12 said in All Blacks vs Wallabies Bledisloe II:

Dmac’s early miss was fucking terrible but he showed his class with the two later kicks to put the game beyond doubt. He seems overly exposed to the shot clock due to his process and I wonder whether that is an issue for him, especially on conversions.

One of his first was long and IIRC he only just missed. The simple conversion was a howler

Fine. I'm not talking about the first try, edited accordingly.

antipodean

@reprobate said in All Blacks vs Wallabies Bledisloe II:

Quade is such a fucken bitch.

He may be, but is he wrong? Who seriously believes on form Edmed is Test quality?

NTA

@antipodean said in All Blacks vs Wallabies Bledisloe II:

@reprobate said in All Blacks vs Wallabies Bledisloe II:

Quade is such a fucken bitch.

He may be, but is he wrong? Who seriously believes on form Edmed is Test quality?

OR any of our other 10s, really. Let's be honest, we're hardly cranking out the next Larkham or even Flatley from the systems we have.

gt12

@NTA

Who is? SA maybe.

NTA

@gt12 said in All Blacks vs Wallabies Bledisloe II:

@NTA

Who is? SA maybe.

Maybe BUT for all the jizzbru crowd furiously de-gloving themselves over SFM's performance in Argentina 1 he failed to back it up in Argentina 2 and probably should have seen a red card.

I see Quade called for Carter Gordon to come back and be parachuted into 10. Perhaps he's the answer but perhaps he's also the guy who bailed to NRL because he didn't seek a deal elsewhere.

Mr Fish

@NTA said in All Blacks vs Wallabies Bledisloe II:

@gt12 said in All Blacks vs Wallabies Bledisloe II:

@NTA

Who is? SA maybe.

Maybe BUT for all the jizzbru crowd furiously de-gloving themselves over SFM's performance in Argentina 1 he failed to back it up in Argentina 2 and probably should have seen a red card.

I see Quade called for Carter Gordon to come back and be parachuted into 10. Perhaps he's the answer but perhaps he's also the guy who bailed to NRL because he didn't seek a deal elsewhere.

SFM had a good game. Not as good as the previous week but that is as the best all-round performance we'd seen from a 10 in years.

Why should SFM have been red carded?

Mauss

A much better performance by the ABs, in my opinion. Especially on defence they looked much more switched on, as opposed to the Eden Park Test where they let the Wallabies make too many soft metres around the ruck. And while Fainga’anuku and Tupaea weren’t perfect, their added breakdown ability put the Australian attacking ruck under a lot more pressure. It’s not difficult to see how slower opposition ball makes defending a bit easier.

The thing which drew my eye the most was the coaches’ approach to the number 8-jersey during the Bledisloe series. Both Sititi and Lakai got the exact same minutes in these two Tests against the Wallabies. Both had a start, played for 61 minutes and were then replaced by the other. It allows us to make a very clear comparison between the two playes, and try to answer a simple question: who should start and who should be on the bench? (apologies, it's another long one)

The starting number 8
Sititi started the first Test against the Wallabies at the back of the scrum, as he had done for the previous two Tests against South Africa. Sititi has come under some scrutiny for his performances, with some accusations of him suffering from the so-called second-year syndrome.

With Sititi starting at 8 instead of 6, it’s clear that his role has somewhat changed: while the Chiefs loose forward played in a (very) free role in his rookie year, he is being entrusted with added responsibilities in his second year. As the number 8, he is to act as a carrying focal point for the side while also having a more prominent role within the attacking shape as a decoy runner and distributor. To me, it looks like Sititi is somewhat struggling with juggling these different responsibilities (while also just coming back from a serious injury, of course).

As a result of some of these struggles, it seems the coaches wanted to test the depth of the position, giving Peter Lakai a shot against the Wallabies in the second Test. Lakai is a very different player to Sititi: whereas the latter is all power and potential, the former is a much more polished player already. Communicative, hardworking, and, importantly, incredibly consistent, Lakai is a typical glue player who will do whatever the side requires in different moments.

So which of these two players is ultimately more suited to starting at 8? Below is a table of their involvements as starting players in the two Tests against the Wallabies.

Number 8-numbers: attacking rucks attended (ARA), defensive rucks attended (DRA), carries (C), gain line carries (GC), defenders beaten (DB), offloads (O), tackles completed and misses (TC/TM), and turnovers won and lost (TO W/L)

This table is yet another example of the beauty of statistics: while the numbers would indicate that they had very similar performances, the opposite was rather true.

Taking a closer look at Sititi’s game at Eden Park, it is clear that the Chiefs number 8 is a confidence player, someone who can really get into a flow and become nearly unstoppable. At the same time, when his confidence is at a low ebb, his game suffers.

Sititi started the game very well: in the third minute of the game, with the ABs having an attacking lineout deep inside the Wallaby 22, Sititi first physically dominates Frost at the pillar, making the maul move forward. Seconds later, he runs to the open, positions himself as a carrier and bursts through two tackles. A few phases later, the ABs score at the other end, the Wallaby defensive line unable to recover from the two early dents.

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Sititi excels when he is able to ‘stack up’ multiple positive involvements

Quickly afterwards, though, Sititi’s play would lose its momentum. The trigger seems to have been a series of defensive sets, where Sititi was simply too passive in the tackle, allowing players like Wilson easy yards and the Wallaby attack to get in behind the AB defensive line.

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Sititi being passive in defensive contact, after which he shirked away from the physical stuff for large parts of the first half

For much of the first half after these poor tackle attempts, Sititi would start deferring to his teammates too much. Instead of offering up the carry and looking for physical dominance on attack, he would enter into more of a support role as a cleaner or passer, which is not a role he necessarily excels at.

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With Sititi passing and cleaning, the ABs became a bit too lateral in the second part of the first half

So while, at first glance, Sititi’s breakdown involvement numbers are a positive (21 total, 15 at attacking rucks and 6 at defensive rucks), in reality they are more of a negative, as they came at a detriment to his natural game and seemed to originate from him going into his shell somewhat (only 6 carries during the first 40, with most of his breakdown involvements - 19 out of 21 - coming during this period as well).

It was only at the end of the first half that he would again start bringing more of a physical edge on both sides of the ball. He would continue being much more assertive in the second half, perhaps after getting a halftime talking to, as he again looked like a proper number 8 between minutes 41 to 61. During these 20 minutes, he would rack up 8 carries (75% gain line and another 2 defenders beaten) and help ensure that the ABs would remain on the front foot during their time in possession.

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Sititi is at his best when he’s running it straight

So while Sititi has, at times, been very good, it has only been in patches so far this season. If his confidence is low, he can start shirking away from his duties while also struggling to be his physically dominant self. For this reason, it’s not strange that the coaches were interested in seeing how Lakai would go as starting number 8, as consistency is probably one of the latter’s standout traits.

One area in which this consistency was a marked improvement was on defence, where Lakai was much more successful in bringing some of the main Wallaby carriers down quickly.

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Stopping opposition carriers dead in their tracks: Lakai was a big contributor in the ABs’ improved defensive effort in Perth

Another benefit is Lakai’s greater experience as a flanker, with his cleaning technique again being much more impactful and consistent than Sititi’s. While both have similar numbers for ruck attendance, behind those numbers, the quality of Lakai’s cleans at the attacking ruck and his disruption at the defensive ruck was much more effective.

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Swiftly moving bodies out of the way: Lakai is decisive when he’s going into the breakdown

Lakai also had some nice carries, using both leg drive and deception to get over the gain line. With his 3 defenders beaten, he wasn’t far off Sititi’s contribution (4 DB), even if the style of carrying is perhaps somewhat different.

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Using his fend, leg drive and deception: Lakai isn’t as physically abrasive as Sititi but is excellent at finding ways at moving the play forward

The only downside is perhaps that Lakai is more of a 7.5 than a typical number 8: he’ll get stuck into the breakdown even when perhaps it would be better that he kept himself available for a hard carry. 8 carries in 60 minutes is just a little on the low side for where you want your number 8 to be. Then again, his willingness to get stuck into attacking and defensive rucks makes him a better foil for someone like Savea, who can sometimes lose himself in his carrying game.

So who starts, and who goes to the bench?
With Sititi, Lakai and Lio-Willie, the ABs have three solid options at the back of the scrum (not to mention obvious others, like Savea). And while Sititi is, due to his high-carrying numbers and physical directness, probably the most classic number 8, both Lakai and Lio-Willie have good arguments to start as well, their compatibility with Savea and defensive robustness being two of them.

We can also take a brief look at the respective bench impacts from both players, again from the two Tests against the Wallabies.

20 minutes worth for each player from the bench

While it’s hard to take away too much from just two games, what was noticeable from Sititi’s bench appearance was his increased aggression in the tackle and the clean. Whereas he’d been way too passive in the previous week, in Perth Sititi showed that he can combine his effective carrying (75% gain line from 4 carries, with 2 defenders beaten) with better efforts in defence and at the breakdown.

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In an ideal world, Sititi would be able to combine his carrying excellence with consistent efforts on defence and at the breakdown, like he did in his short spell off the bench in Perth

Lakai, on the other hand, offers pretty much the same effort from the bench as he does starting. While not as dynamic and physical as Sititi in the carry, he combines a high work rate with technical excellence, which are valuable traits for a team to have both at the beginning as at the end of games.

Lakai starts now, Sititi in the future
Perhaps, for the coming Test matches at least, it would be more logical if Lakai started in the number 8-jersery. The ABs are a side severely lacking in confidence right now, and they can spiral when they have a poor start defensively. For this reason, it would be best, in my view, for someone like Lakai to start the game, as he’s a more consistent performer on the defensive side of the ball.

For the future, I’d still think someone like Sititi potentially offers the most. But for him, the task is relatively clear in the next few seasons: improve the defensive efforts and work on consistency rather than relying on confident patches. If he’s able to do this, then he’ll have gone a long way towards becoming the long-term All Blacks number 8.

Billy Webb

@Mauss
Wow. I don't know enough about NZ rugby players to comment on the veracity of your analysis.
But i so epically applaud the depth of it. Great work. Food for debate.

canefan

@Mauss love your work as usual

ExiledHalfback

@Mauss that's unreal analysis

I hate the current chopping and changing culture the ABs have. They need to find a back row and stick with it. For me off the back of that analysis why not:

Lakai (has he played here)
Dalton (we need a work horse, someone phone and apologize)
Savea

Bench Sititi. I've not seen anything from Parker which makes me think he's in the fold really.

Dan54

@Mauss Great work mate. I love the analysis mate. I love to see that we got a poster who does this and who just doesn't say oh he useless etc.

Bones

@ExiledHalfback said in All Blacks vs Wallabies Bledisloe II:

@Mauss that's unreal analysis

I hate the current chopping and changing culture the ABs have. They need to find a back row and stick with it. For me off the back of that analysis why not:

Lakai (has he played here)

Dalton (we need a work horse, someone phone and apologize)

Savea

Bench Sititi. I've not seen anything from Parker which makes me think he's in the fold really.

Four opensides is epic, reckon both locks can play 80, so could have Kirifi on the bench too.

ShaquilleOatmeal

@ExiledHalfback said in All Blacks vs Wallabies Bledisloe II:

@Mauss that's unreal analysis

I hate the current chopping and changing culture the ABs have. They need to find a back row and stick with it. For me off the back of that analysis why not:

Lakai (has he played here)

Dalton (we need a work horse, someone phone and apologize)

Savea

Bench Sititi. I've not seen anything from Parker which makes me think he's in the fold really.

I want balance.

Muscle + intimidation
Engine + disruption
Composure + explosiveness

I don't want any of them to shy away from making tackles and hitting rucks and I never want to see a chip kick.

pakman

@Mauss said in All Blacks vs Wallabies Bledisloe II:

A much better performance by the ABs, in my opinion. Especially on defence they looked much more switched on, as opposed to the Eden Park Test where they let the Wallabies make too many soft metres around the ruck. And while Fainga’anuku and Tupaea weren’t perfect, their added breakdown ability put the Australian attacking ruck under a lot more pressure. It’s not difficult to see how slower opposition ball makes defending a bit easier.

The thing which drew my eye the most was the coaches’ approach to the number 8-jersey during the Bledisloe series. Both Sititi and Lakai got the exact same minutes in these two Tests against the Wallabies. Both had a start, played for 61 minutes and were then replaced by the other. It allows us to make a very clear comparison between the two playes, and try to answer a simple question: who should start and who should be on the bench? (apologies, it's another long one)

The starting number 8
Sititi started the first Test against the Wallabies at the back of the scrum, as he had done for the previous two Tests against South Africa. Sititi has come under some scrutiny for his performances, with some accusations of him suffering from the so-called second-year syndrome.

With Sititi starting at 8 instead of 6, it’s clear that his role has somewhat changed: while the Chiefs loose forward played in a (very) free role in his rookie year, he is being entrusted with added responsibilities in his second year. As the number 8, he is to act as a carrying focal point for the side while also having a more prominent role within the attacking shape as a decoy runner and distributor. To me, it looks like Sititi is somewhat struggling with juggling these different responsibilities (while also just coming back from a serious injury, of course).

As a result of some of these struggles, it seems the coaches wanted to test the depth of the position, giving Peter Lakai a shot against the Wallabies in the second Test. Lakai is a very different player to Sititi: whereas the latter is all power and potential, the former is a much more polished player already. Communicative, hardworking, and, importantly, incredibly consistent, Lakai is a typical glue player who will do whatever the side requires in different moments.

So which of these two players is ultimately more suited to starting at 8? Below is a table of their involvements as starting players in the two Tests against the Wallabies.

Number 8-numbers: attacking rucks attended (ARA), defensive rucks attended (DRA), carries (C), gain line carries (GC), defenders beaten (DB), offloads (O), tackles completed and misses (TC/TM), and turnovers won and lost (TO W/L)

This table is yet another example of the beauty of statistics: while the numbers would indicate that they had very similar performances, the opposite was rather true.

Taking a closer look at Sititi’s game at Eden Park, it is clear that the Chiefs number 8 is a confidence player, someone who can really get into a flow and become nearly unstoppable. At the same time, when his confidence is at a low ebb, his game suffers.

Sititi started the game very well: in the third minute of the game, with the ABs having an attacking lineout deep inside the Wallaby 22, Sititi first physically dominates Frost at the pillar, making the maul move forward. Seconds later, he runs to the open, positions himself as a carrier and bursts through two tackles. A few phases later, the ABs score at the other end, the Wallaby defensive line unable to recover from the two early dents.

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Sititi excels when he is able to ‘stack up’ multiple positive involvements

Quickly afterwards, though, Sititi’s play would lose its momentum. The trigger seems to have been a series of defensive sets, where Sititi was simply too passive in the tackle, allowing players like Wilson easy yards and the Wallaby attack to get in behind the AB defensive line.

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Sititi being passive in defensive contact, after which he shirked away from the physical stuff for large parts of the first half

For much of the first half after these poor tackle attempts, Sititi would start deferring to his teammates too much. Instead of offering up the carry and looking for physical dominance on attack, he would enter into more of a support role as a cleaner or passer, which is not a role he necessarily excels at.

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With Sititi passing and cleaning, the ABs became a bit too lateral in the second part of the first half

So while, at first glance, Sititi’s breakdown involvement numbers are a positive (21 total, 15 at attacking rucks and 6 at defensive rucks), in reality they are more of a negative, as they came at a detriment to his natural game and seemed to originate from him going into his shell somewhat (only 6 carries during the first 40, with most of his breakdown involvements - 19 out of 21 - coming during this period as well).

It was only at the end of the first half that he would again start bringing more of a physical edge on both sides of the ball. He would continue being much more assertive in the second half, perhaps after getting a halftime talking to, as he again looked like a proper number 8 between minutes 41 to 61. During these 20 minutes, he would rack up 8 carries (75% gain line and another 2 defenders beaten) and help ensure that the ABs would remain on the front foot during their time in possession.

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Sititi is at his best when he’s running it straight

So while Sititi has, at times, been very good, it has only been in patches so far this season. If his confidence is low, he can start shirking away from his duties while also struggling to be his physically dominant self. For this reason, it’s not strange that the coaches were interested in seeing how Lakai would go as starting number 8, as consistency is probably one of the latter’s standout traits.

One area in which this consistency was a marked improvement was on defence, where Lakai was much more successful in bringing some of the main Wallaby carriers down quickly.

https://media3.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExZGlzajVsbHg4bTl4cnZwdm15NXk1dXZuYmJ2eGdxbGNzMXVoaXczcSZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/ZorAq3loYHdA5gTpLc/giphy.gif
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Stopping opposition carriers dead in their tracks: Lakai was a big contributor in the ABs’ improved defensive effort in Perth

Another benefit is Lakai’s greater experience as a flanker, with his cleaning technique again being much more impactful and consistent than Sititi’s. While both have similar numbers for ruck attendance, behind those numbers, the quality of Lakai’s cleans at the attacking ruck and his disruption at the defensive ruck was much more effective.

https://media0.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExbmt3ODhqemtqaWxoZmc3dDZxbmdtbndvYmF5dzYzNmE3dTQ3Nnc1MyZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/t775WFgX8Oh1hs3rIL/giphy.gif
Swiftly moving bodies out of the way: Lakai is decisive when he’s going into the breakdown

Lakai also had some nice carries, using both leg drive and deception to get over the gain line. With his 3 defenders beaten, he wasn’t far off Sititi’s contribution (4 DB), even if the style of carrying is perhaps somewhat different.

https://media2.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExaGJrd3ZjNm8zMzF1bmN3Yjh2ZG5rMmUzc3BmYWNybDAxMjNuMWd0ciZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/VPJyP9FfOe2oPkdoJP/giphy.gif
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Using his fend, leg drive and deception: Lakai isn’t as physically abrasive as Sititi but is excellent at finding ways at moving the play forward

The only downside is perhaps that Lakai is more of a 7.5 than a typical number 8: he’ll get stuck into the breakdown even when perhaps it would be better that he kept himself available for a hard carry. 8 carries in 60 minutes is just a little on the low side for where you want your number 8 to be. Then again, his willingness to get stuck into attacking and defensive rucks makes him a better foil for someone like Savea, who can sometimes lose himself in his carrying game.

So who starts, and who goes to the bench?
With Sititi, Lakai and Lio-Willie, the ABs have three solid options at the back of the scrum (not to mention obvious others, like Savea). And while Sititi is, due to his high-carrying numbers and physical directness, probably the most classic number 8, both Lakai and Lio-Willie have good arguments to start as well, their compatibility with Savea and defensive robustness being two of them.

We can also take a brief look at the respective bench impacts from both players, again from the two Tests against the Wallabies.

20 minutes worth for each player from the bench

While it’s hard to take away too much from just two games, what was noticeable from Sititi’s bench appearance was his increased aggression in the tackle and the clean. Whereas he’d been way too passive in the previous week, in Perth Sititi showed that he can combine his effective carrying (75% gain line from 4 carries, with 2 defenders beaten) with better efforts in defence and at the breakdown.

https://media3.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExYTlobWwxNzZvMGI5dDV0emM3cGJhMDJ1cDNseGhyb3VwdHd4NjZwZCZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/GINmSIrGMudGdnPRDv/giphy.gif
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In an ideal world, Sititi would be able to combine his carrying excellence with consistent efforts on defence and at the breakdown, like he did in his short spell off the bench in Perth

Lakai, on the other hand, offers pretty much the same effort from the bench as he does starting. While not as dynamic and physical as Sititi in the carry, he combines a high work rate with technical excellence, which are valuable traits for a team to have both at the beginning as at the end of games.

Lakai starts now, Sititi in the future
Perhaps, for the coming Test matches at least, it would be more logical if Lakai started in the number 8-jersery. The ABs are a side severely lacking in confidence right now, and they can spiral when they have a poor start defensively. For this reason, it would be best, in my view, for someone like Lakai to start the game, as he’s a more consistent performer on the defensive side of the ball.

For the future, I’d still think someone like Sititi potentially offers the most. But for him, the task is relatively clear in the next few seasons: improve the defensive efforts and work on consistency rather than relying on confident patches. If he’s able to do this, then he’ll have gone a long way towards becoming the long-term All Blacks number 8.

I must say this reinforces my existing prejudice that Lakai would be better at 7 than RD. The
latter can play 8, with Wally to come off bench to fill whatever role is required.

ShaquilleOatmeal

@pakman said in All Blacks vs Wallabies Bledisloe II:

I must say this reinforces my existing prejudice that Lakai would be better at 7 than RD. The
Latter can play 8, with Wally to come off bench to fill whatever role is required.

I'd have one of Savea or Sititi on the bench, the other in the stands and look for another starting number eight.

African Monkey

@pakman said in All Blacks vs Wallabies Bledisloe II:

@Mauss said in All Blacks vs Wallabies Bledisloe II:

A much better performance by the ABs, in my opinion. Especially on defence they looked much more switched on, as opposed to the Eden Park Test where they let the Wallabies make too many soft metres around the ruck. And while Fainga’anuku and Tupaea weren’t perfect, their added breakdown ability put the Australian attacking ruck under a lot more pressure. It’s not difficult to see how slower opposition ball makes defending a bit easier.

The thing which drew my eye the most was the coaches’ approach to the number 8-jersey during the Bledisloe series. Both Sititi and Lakai got the exact same minutes in these two Tests against the Wallabies. Both had a start, played for 61 minutes and were then replaced by the other. It allows us to make a very clear comparison between the two playes, and try to answer a simple question: who should start and who should be on the bench? (apologies, it's another long one)

The starting number 8
Sititi started the first Test against the Wallabies at the back of the scrum, as he had done for the previous two Tests against South Africa. Sititi has come under some scrutiny for his performances, with some accusations of him suffering from the so-called second-year syndrome.

With Sititi starting at 8 instead of 6, it’s clear that his role has somewhat changed: while the Chiefs loose forward played in a (very) free role in his rookie year, he is being entrusted with added responsibilities in his second year. As the number 8, he is to act as a carrying focal point for the side while also having a more prominent role within the attacking shape as a decoy runner and distributor. To me, it looks like Sititi is somewhat struggling with juggling these different responsibilities (while also just coming back from a serious injury, of course).

As a result of some of these struggles, it seems the coaches wanted to test the depth of the position, giving Peter Lakai a shot against the Wallabies in the second Test. Lakai is a very different player to Sititi: whereas the latter is all power and potential, the former is a much more polished player already. Communicative, hardworking, and, importantly, incredibly consistent, Lakai is a typical glue player who will do whatever the side requires in different moments.

So which of these two players is ultimately more suited to starting at 8? Below is a table of their involvements as starting players in the two Tests against the Wallabies.

Number 8-numbers: attacking rucks attended (ARA), defensive rucks attended (DRA), carries (C), gain line carries (GC), defenders beaten (DB), offloads (O), tackles completed and misses (TC/TM), and turnovers won and lost (TO W/L)

This table is yet another example of the beauty of statistics: while the numbers would indicate that they had very similar performances, the opposite was rather true.

Taking a closer look at Sititi’s game at Eden Park, it is clear that the Chiefs number 8 is a confidence player, someone who can really get into a flow and become nearly unstoppable. At the same time, when his confidence is at a low ebb, his game suffers.

Sititi started the game very well: in the third minute of the game, with the ABs having an attacking lineout deep inside the Wallaby 22, Sititi first physically dominates Frost at the pillar, making the maul move forward. Seconds later, he runs to the open, positions himself as a carrier and bursts through two tackles. A few phases later, the ABs score at the other end, the Wallaby defensive line unable to recover from the two early dents.

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Sititi excels when he is able to ‘stack up’ multiple positive involvements

Quickly afterwards, though, Sititi’s play would lose its momentum. The trigger seems to have been a series of defensive sets, where Sititi was simply too passive in the tackle, allowing players like Wilson easy yards and the Wallaby attack to get in behind the AB defensive line.

https://media2.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExNHBvdnFsamJzNmtqYXd4OHVpOXNiMjhtYzN6ZmRoYWVqeXR4aThrZCZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/zvy5g4N59tnmTDHYdZ/giphy.gif
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Sititi being passive in defensive contact, after which he shirked away from the physical stuff for large parts of the first half

For much of the first half after these poor tackle attempts, Sititi would start deferring to his teammates too much. Instead of offering up the carry and looking for physical dominance on attack, he would enter into more of a support role as a cleaner or passer, which is not a role he necessarily excels at.

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With Sititi passing and cleaning, the ABs became a bit too lateral in the second part of the first half

So while, at first glance, Sititi’s breakdown involvement numbers are a positive (21 total, 15 at attacking rucks and 6 at defensive rucks), in reality they are more of a negative, as they came at a detriment to his natural game and seemed to originate from him going into his shell somewhat (only 6 carries during the first 40, with most of his breakdown involvements - 19 out of 21 - coming during this period as well).

It was only at the end of the first half that he would again start bringing more of a physical edge on both sides of the ball. He would continue being much more assertive in the second half, perhaps after getting a halftime talking to, as he again looked like a proper number 8 between minutes 41 to 61. During these 20 minutes, he would rack up 8 carries (75% gain line and another 2 defenders beaten) and help ensure that the ABs would remain on the front foot during their time in possession.

https://media4.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExZHM1ZjllOHI1ZnQ5OTIwenloanRzeTE4cXplMmR5OGhjMGoxZDZ4NyZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/J3gffKGrE37lko6yjR/giphy.gif
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Sititi is at his best when he’s running it straight

So while Sititi has, at times, been very good, it has only been in patches so far this season. If his confidence is low, he can start shirking away from his duties while also struggling to be his physically dominant self. For this reason, it’s not strange that the coaches were interested in seeing how Lakai would go as starting number 8, as consistency is probably one of the latter’s standout traits.

One area in which this consistency was a marked improvement was on defence, where Lakai was much more successful in bringing some of the main Wallaby carriers down quickly.

https://media3.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExZGlzajVsbHg4bTl4cnZwdm15NXk1dXZuYmJ2eGdxbGNzMXVoaXczcSZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/ZorAq3loYHdA5gTpLc/giphy.gif
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Stopping opposition carriers dead in their tracks: Lakai was a big contributor in the ABs’ improved defensive effort in Perth

Another benefit is Lakai’s greater experience as a flanker, with his cleaning technique again being much more impactful and consistent than Sititi’s. While both have similar numbers for ruck attendance, behind those numbers, the quality of Lakai’s cleans at the attacking ruck and his disruption at the defensive ruck was much more effective.

https://media0.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExbmt3ODhqemtqaWxoZmc3dDZxbmdtbndvYmF5dzYzNmE3dTQ3Nnc1MyZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/t775WFgX8Oh1hs3rIL/giphy.gif
Swiftly moving bodies out of the way: Lakai is decisive when he’s going into the breakdown

Lakai also had some nice carries, using both leg drive and deception to get over the gain line. With his 3 defenders beaten, he wasn’t far off Sititi’s contribution (4 DB), even if the style of carrying is perhaps somewhat different.

https://media2.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExaGJrd3ZjNm8zMzF1bmN3Yjh2ZG5rMmUzc3BmYWNybDAxMjNuMWd0ciZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/VPJyP9FfOe2oPkdoJP/giphy.gif
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Using his fend, leg drive and deception: Lakai isn’t as physically abrasive as Sititi but is excellent at finding ways at moving the play forward

The only downside is perhaps that Lakai is more of a 7.5 than a typical number 8: he’ll get stuck into the breakdown even when perhaps it would be better that he kept himself available for a hard carry. 8 carries in 60 minutes is just a little on the low side for where you want your number 8 to be. Then again, his willingness to get stuck into attacking and defensive rucks makes him a better foil for someone like Savea, who can sometimes lose himself in his carrying game.

So who starts, and who goes to the bench?
With Sititi, Lakai and Lio-Willie, the ABs have three solid options at the back of the scrum (not to mention obvious others, like Savea). And while Sititi is, due to his high-carrying numbers and physical directness, probably the most classic number 8, both Lakai and Lio-Willie have good arguments to start as well, their compatibility with Savea and defensive robustness being two of them.

We can also take a brief look at the respective bench impacts from both players, again from the two Tests against the Wallabies.

20 minutes worth for each player from the bench

While it’s hard to take away too much from just two games, what was noticeable from Sititi’s bench appearance was his increased aggression in the tackle and the clean. Whereas he’d been way too passive in the previous week, in Perth Sititi showed that he can combine his effective carrying (75% gain line from 4 carries, with 2 defenders beaten) with better efforts in defence and at the breakdown.

https://media3.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExYTlobWwxNzZvMGI5dDV0emM3cGJhMDJ1cDNseGhyb3VwdHd4NjZwZCZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/GINmSIrGMudGdnPRDv/giphy.gif
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In an ideal world, Sititi would be able to combine his carrying excellence with consistent efforts on defence and at the breakdown, like he did in his short spell off the bench in Perth

Lakai, on the other hand, offers pretty much the same effort from the bench as he does starting. While not as dynamic and physical as Sititi in the carry, he combines a high work rate with technical excellence, which are valuable traits for a team to have both at the beginning as at the end of games.

Lakai starts now, Sititi in the future
Perhaps, for the coming Test matches at least, it would be more logical if Lakai started in the number 8-jersery. The ABs are a side severely lacking in confidence right now, and they can spiral when they have a poor start defensively. For this reason, it would be best, in my view, for someone like Lakai to start the game, as he’s a more consistent performer on the defensive side of the ball.

For the future, I’d still think someone like Sititi potentially offers the most. But for him, the task is relatively clear in the next few seasons: improve the defensive efforts and work on consistency rather than relying on confident patches. If he’s able to do this, then he’ll have gone a long way towards becoming the long-term All Blacks number 8.

I must say this reinforces my existing prejudice that Lakai would be better at 7 than RD. The
latter can play 8, with Wally to come off bench to fill whatever role is required.

Yeah this. I thought Lakai deserved first shot at 7 earlier this year. Savea should be back at 8, with Papali'i being in the squad as the other 7. Don't think we need to see anymore of Kirifi.

The Silver Fern

All Blacks vs Wallabies Bledisloe II