All Blacks 2023

nostrildamus

@voodoo said in All Blacks 2023:

@reprobate said in All Blacks 2023:

EDG

Samisoni

Lomax

Barrett

Whitelock/Retallick

Frizzel

Blackadder

Savea

Smith

McKenzie

Telea

Barrett

Ioane

Fainganuku

Jordan

Taylor/Coles, whoever - props are shit, Whitelock/Retallick, Cane, Dalton, Mounga, Roigard.

What is this tripe?

A prop likely to be suspended, another still injured. A 7 that’s not really a 7, an injured 6.

A new 10, and playing LF on the right.

A bench with 2 x 7’s but no midfield or outside backs

I have zero idea what this post is trying to say

It's all hopeless so roll the dice and at least make our early exit something to complain about?!

reprobate

@nostrildamus said in All Blacks 2023:

@voodoo said in All Blacks 2023:

@reprobate said in All Blacks 2023:

EDG

Samisoni

Lomax

Barrett

Whitelock/Retallick

Frizzel

Blackadder

Savea

Smith

McKenzie

Telea

Barrett

Ioane

Fainganuku

Jordan

Taylor/Coles, whoever - props are shit, Whitelock/Retallick, Cane, Dalton, Mounga, Roigard.

What is this tripe?

A prop likely to be suspended, another still injured. A 7 that’s not really a 7, an injured 6.

A new 10, and playing LF on the right.

A bench with 2 x 7’s but no midfield or outside backs

I have zero idea what this post is trying to say

It's all hopeless so roll the dice and at least make our early exit something to complain about?!

That's pretty close, yep. just substitute 'to complain about' for 'worth watching'.
As for the lack of back cover - the boks think it is worth the gamble, and our 10,12,13 are all outside backs. Yeah, if 12 or 13 go down then LF is not a great midfield option, but neither are Havili or ALB great off the bench.

gt12

@reprobate said in All Blacks 2023:

@nostrildamus said in All Blacks 2023:

@voodoo said in All Blacks 2023:

@reprobate said in All Blacks 2023:

EDG

Samisoni

Lomax

Barrett

Whitelock/Retallick

Frizzel

Blackadder

Savea

Smith

McKenzie

Telea

Barrett

Ioane

Fainganuku

Jordan

Taylor/Coles, whoever - props are shit, Whitelock/Retallick, Cane, Dalton, Mounga, Roigard.

What is this tripe?

A prop likely to be suspended, another still injured. A 7 that’s not really a 7, an injured 6.

A new 10, and playing LF on the right.

A bench with 2 x 7’s but no midfield or outside backs

I have zero idea what this post is trying to say

It's all hopeless so roll the dice and at least make our early exit something to complain about?!

That's pretty close, yep. just substitute 'to complain about' for 'worth watching'.
As for the lack of back cover - the boks think it is worth the gamble, and our 10,12,13 are all outside backs. Yeah, if 12 or 13 go down then LF is not a great midfield option, but neither are Havili or ALB great off the bench.

I do agree with that last sentence. We miss Tupaea, he would make a nice squaddie right now.

Edit: I would have picked Heem - he could fit in anywhere and hasn’t let anyone down for a couple of seasons.

taniwharugby

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/rugby-world-cup-2023/2023/09/rugby-world-cup-all-blacks-prop-tyrel-lomax-feared-tournament-was-over-after-needing-30-stitches-from-gruesome-cut-against-south-africa.html

frugby

So if I am correct, should we come 2nd in the Pool, it is likely we will need to play Ireland/SA then England, then Ireland/SA/France to win the thing?

Absolutely no chance, if you have money on, cash out now.

taniwharugby

@frugby If we pull one out of the hat and tip over Ireland/SA, which we are capable of, then we have a good chance to get past England, then the final...

Knock out footy is different.

frugby

@taniwharugby said in All Blacks 2023:

@frugby If we pull one out of the hat and tip over Ireland/SA, which we are capable of, then we have a good chance to get past England, then the final...

Knock out footy is different.

Yeah but this is the point. If we win this, and then we win that, we could possibly win this. We aren't talking about certainties. This is an inconsistent side which won't turn up for three hard games in a row, not a chance.

The only way we were really going to win the RWC IMO was if we beat France first up, got a down on form Ireland/an over-achieving RSA in the QFs, then a bumbling England/Aussie in the semis, before the final.

England are playing sensible footy, and are defending extremally well. On the unlikely chance we get past SA or Ireland, I would think England do us as they did four years ago, because we haven't learnt any lessons.

voodoo

@frugby said in All Blacks 2023:

So if I am correct, should we come 2nd in the Pool, it is likely we will need to play Ireland/SA then England, then Ireland/SA/France to win the thing?

Absolutely no chance, if you have money on, cash out now.

No, we flipped by losing to France

If we make the SF, it'll be against the winner of C (Wales/Oz/Fiji) and runner up D (Argentina / Samoa)

So we avoid England now

frugby

@voodoo said in All Blacks 2023:

@frugby said in All Blacks 2023:

So if I am correct, should we come 2nd in the Pool, it is likely we will need to play Ireland/SA then England, then Ireland/SA/France to win the thing?

Absolutely no chance, if you have money on, cash out now.

No, we flipped by losing to France

If we make the SF, it'll be against the winner of C (Wales/Oz/Fiji) and runner up D (Argentina / Samoa)

So we avoid England now

Oh so slightly better then... you'd like to think that if we sneak through the quarters we should be able to make the final then... I still do have visions though, of the Aussies fumbling their way to the semis, and watching us crumble like a cookie.

taniwharugby

@frugby well every one has permutations requiring on if we win this/that...when has it ever been certain? It aint certain for Ireland/SA/France who are all the favorites right now either.

I do believe we have a good chance, but all the stars need to align and we start playing more consistently instead of 10 or 20 min patches of good rugby.

nostrildamus

@taniwharugby said in All Blacks 2023:

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/rugby-world-cup-2023/2023/09/rugby-world-cup-all-blacks-prop-tyrel-lomax-feared-tournament-was-over-after-needing-30-stitches-from-gruesome-cut-against-south-africa.html

30 stitches? Did they do anything about those boots? If not, that is shocking.

nostrildamus

@frugby said in All Blacks 2023:

Oh so slightly better then... you'd like to think that if we sneak through the quarters we should be able to make the final then... I still do have visions though, of the Aussies fumbling their way to the semis, and watching us crumble like a cookie.

Aussies are competing with us now for "former tier 1 team that now crumbles like a cookie" status ...

mariner4life

Or, alternatively

In teh quarter we will play Ireland, who will have to battle their QF demons
Or SA, who we have beaten already this year

With a bunch of troops back on deck.

Win that and it's a semi everyone will expect us to win, and then it's the final, which always gets weird.

We are far from alone in our QF trepidation

frugby

@taniwharugby said in All Blacks 2023:

@frugby well every one has permutations requiring on if we win this/that...when has it ever been certain? It aint certain for Ireland/SA/France who are all the favorites right now either.

I do believe we have a good chance, but all the stars need to align and we start playing more consistently instead of 10 or 20 min patches of good rugby.

There in lies the problem. How can we have a good chance, if we haven't shown in this four year cycle we can string two good halves together, let alone three high pressure games. We are hoping on a miracle, but we just aren't there. Miracles have rarely happened at the Rugby World Cup...

19' - South Africa, one of the best in the World
15' - New Zealand - the best
11' - New Zealand - World no. 1 + Home side
07' - South Africa, one of the best in the world
03' - England, one of the best in the world
99' - Australia, one of the best in the world
95' - South Africa, Home Nation
91' - Australia, best in the world
87' - New Zealand, one of the best in the world + home side

There has not been a World Cup winner who weren't one of the best sides in the world, not playing to their best. It just won't happen.

taniwharugby

@frugby but looking at your evidence you say winners we 'one of the best' we are still 'one of the best'

Anyway, I dont care if you thnk we cant win, I think we have a good shot, probably not as good as the faves, so yeah.

frugby

This is Ireland, South Africa or France's tournament. I'd probably give each roughly a 25% chance, NZ at more like 15% , England 6%, Australia 3%, Others 1%

nostrildamus

@frugby said in All Blacks 2023:

This is Ireland, South Africa or France's tournament. I'd probably give each roughly a 25% chance, NZ at more like 15% , England 6%, Australia 3%, Others 1%

Sounds close but I think France and SA in driving seat, France now a touch ahead of SA given Marx's exit...

frugby

@taniwharugby said in All Blacks 2023:

@frugby but looking at your evidence you say winners we 'one of the best' we are still 'one of the best'

Anyway, I dont care if you thnk we cant win, I think we have a good shot, albeit with caveats above, so yeah.

By one of the best, I mean top three in the world. As far as I can tell, there hasn't been a side win the World Cup without either being the best in the world, or playing well. We aren't playing well, and haven't played well barring the odd game here or there in the past four year cycle.

We looked a million bucks to start the year, and then got mullered by South Africa. Started well vs France, then faded quicker than a tattoo from Bali...

That game vs South Africa didn't matter, but at the same time, All Blacks sides of the past wouldn't have copped such a pasting. They might have lost 13+, but they wouldn't have been destroyed.

All Blacks sides of the past would have turned that good start into points, and would have punished a France side who didn't set the world on fire. We are hoping to win the World Cup, but there is such little evidence to suggest we will I am afraid.

frugby

@nostrildamus said in All Blacks 2023:

@frugby said in All Blacks 2023:

This is Ireland, South Africa or France's tournament. I'd probably give each roughly a 25% chance, NZ at more like 15% , England 6%, Australia 3%, Others 1%

Sounds close but I think France and SA in driving seat, France now a touch ahead of SA given Marx's exit...

Well of course New Zealand could win it, but I wouldn't describe us as having a good chance. If you isolate the quarter, semi and final, it is actually quite easy to make a convincing argument for us, but then when you consider that we have to do all three consecutively, there is nothing from the past four years to suggest we have a good chance.

nostrildamus

@frugby said in All Blacks 2023:

@nostrildamus said in All Blacks 2023:

@frugby said in All Blacks 2023:

This is Ireland, South Africa or France's tournament. I'd probably give each roughly a 25% chance, NZ at more like 15% , England 6%, Australia 3%, Others 1%

Sounds close but I think France and SA in driving seat, France now a touch ahead of SA given Marx's exit...

Well of course New Zealand could win it, but I wouldn't describe us as having a good chance. If you isolate the quarter, semi and final, it is actually quite easy to make a convincing argument for us, but then when you consider that we have to do all three consecutively, there is nothing from the past four years to suggest we have a good chance.

I agree with you on NZ, I'm just not so sure Ireland is level pegging with France (their hometown) or SA (their ferocity)..
Perhaps they are, they're pretty skilled to neutralizing other teams' strengths.

The Silver Fern

All Blacks 2023