In all probability, six wins is going to be the mark to be assured of the finals. By that measure, the Canes, Blues, Brumbies and Chiefs are all already home and hosed.

The Rebels currently sit on five wins, but have one of, if not the toughest run home. Blues and Chiefs at home, and Reds, Brumbies and Drua away. Feasible they could still miss out.
Reds are currently on four wins, but have played much better rugby than that, with the Force, Waratahs and Rebels still to play, they should get at least six wins (Drua and Crusaders away the other two fixtures)
Drua are also on four wins, but are far more interesting due to their inability to win away from home. For that reason, to get to six wins, they'd need to beat both the Reds and Rebels at home to get to six... admittedly quite doable, but certainly little margin for error if they can't win away (Brumbies, Force and Highlanders)
Despite being straight-up rubbish of late, the Highlanders hold eighth with three wins to their name. Assuming they beat the Drua at home, they need to win 2/4 of their remaining fixtures (Moana, Blues and Canes away, Crusaders at home) so in other words, they need to beat Moana and the Crusaders to get to six wins.
Moana are also on three wins. With games against the Chiefs and Canes likely losses, that leaves them needing to beat the Highlanders (in Tonga) and Waratahs at home, and the Crusaders away. Certainly not impossible, although unlikely.
Crusaders are on two wins, so need to win four out of: Reds, Blues and Moana (Home) and Brumbies and Highlanders (Away). Not inconceivable, but to beat the Blues and Brumbies is an uphill battle in the context.
Waratahs are on two wins, both against the Crusaders, but crucially have a decent run home. They're away to the Hurricanes this week, but then finish off with Brumbies (H), Force (A), Moana (A), Reds (H). If they can take the Brumbies at home, they might just get enough momentum to win all four of those.
Force are on two wins, with their only saving grace being that they have 3/5 of their remaining games in Perth. They should lose to the Chiefs this week, however they'll back themselves against the Drua and Tahs (H). Would have them on four wins with Reds (A) and Brumbies (H) remaining.

That being said, I think the Rebels don't win another game (5 Wins), Reds win three (7 Wins), Drua get one win (5 Wins), Highlanders get two wins (5 Wins), Moana don't win another game (3 Wins), Crusaders get three wins (5 Wins), Waratahs get 3 wins (5 Wins), Force get 2 wins (4 Wins)... this is if I have done my maths right.

Would leave the Reds a clear 5th, and with five teams from 6-10th all on five wins, sending it to BPs, which probably sees the Rebels 6th, Crusaders 7th and Highlanders 8th.

Highlanders next two games though are massive in the context of the whole playoff race. If they win both, Moana and the Crusaders almost certainly out of it. If they lose both, they're out of it, and the final round-robin match between Moana and the Crusaders could be like a Round of 16 game (even though it is a 12-team comp lol)

The Silver Fern

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