The Silver Fern

Did the All Blacks do some things wrong? Absolutely, but that doesn't mean that we can't legitimately say the 50/50s didn't go our way. I'm not sure the Boks were necessarily that much better, but the day belonged to them, and they got the rub of the green. There's no conspiracy to it, it was just how things fell.

On another day Kolisi gets a red, Frizell doesn't even get penalised, we get a free kick at the end etc. That's rugby at the top level, it just so happened that there were many incidents in that game, which was an abomination. It wasn't a good game, it was a close game which made it tense. The two big quarter-finals are what the game should strive for... could be wrong, but I don't know if there was a singly 10+ phase movement in that game.

Can I just point out, people criticising McLeod, but look at the amount of breakdown turnovers we won. That was a result of excellent structure.

@voodoo said in All Blacks 2023:

@Tim said in All Blacks 2023:

@Stargazer At least he's available for the QF.

Is that a good thing? So far in about 60mins of playing time he's contributed something like 5 knock-ons, 27 missed tackles, 43 scrum penalties and a red card.

Oh and a try

The way people are turning on de Groot to me is bizarre. The All Blacks are noticeably better when he and Lomax are on the field. Didn't have his best game vs France obviously, but it got way overblown. Wasn't where we lost the game.

Was his tackle vs Namibia on the poor side? Of course it was. But it also isn't the thuggery shoulder charge some people are trying to make it out to be. He is far better than Ofa, and we should 100% rush him straight back in come the quarters.

Personally think some of the critique of Christie is harsh. He is the fourth choice halfback, and he played like a fourth choice halfback - but you can’t knock his effort levels.

Considering the circumstances, I think criticising him for what he simply can’t do feels unfair.

@Canes4life said in Exodus:

@African-Monkey he's just another Brett Cameron, steady without being spectacular. Not a big loss tbh, especially considering Beaudy is coming back to cover 10.

We'll see. Thought Burke looked to be coming into his own for Canterbury. Whilst this might not necessarily be a great loss to the All Blacks, this is the exact sort of player the Silverlake Deal should be keeping playing Super Rugby.

And there ends the most magical rugby campaign I have enjoyed since 2015. The way it just built and built and built for Otago, was genuinely magical. The quarter final and semi final, were top five nights I have had at Forsyth Barr, and winning the Shield at the evil umpire was a sight to behold.

I was lucky enough to make the trip up on Saturday, and even though we lost, the experience was awesome. Long live the NPC.

In all probability, six wins is going to be the mark to be assured of the finals. By that measure, the Canes, Blues, Brumbies and Chiefs are all already home and hosed.

• The Rebels currently sit on five wins, but have one of, if not the toughest run home. Blues and Chiefs at home, and Reds, Brumbies and Drua away. Feasible they could still miss out.

• Reds are currently on four wins, but have played much better rugby than that, with the Force, Waratahs and Rebels still to play, they should get at least six wins (Drua and Crusaders away the other two fixtures)

• Drua are also on four wins, but are far more interesting due to their inability to win away from home. For that reason, to get to six wins, they'd need to beat both the Reds and Rebels at home to get to six... admittedly quite doable, but certainly little margin for error if they can't win away (Brumbies, Force and Highlanders)

• Despite being straight-up rubbish of late, the Highlanders hold eighth with three wins to their name. Assuming they beat the Drua at home, they need to win 2/4 of their remaining fixtures (Moana, Blues and Canes away, Crusaders at home) so in other words, they need to beat Moana and the Crusaders to get to six wins.

• Moana are also on three wins. With games against the Chiefs and Canes likely losses, that leaves them needing to beat the Highlanders (in Tonga) and Waratahs at home, and the Crusaders away. Certainly not impossible, although unlikely.

• Crusaders are on two wins, so need to win four out of: Reds, Blues and Moana (Home) and Brumbies and Highlanders (Away). Not inconceivable, but to beat the Blues and Brumbies is an uphill battle in the context.

• Waratahs are on two wins, both against the Crusaders, but crucially have a decent run home. They're away to the Hurricanes this week, but then finish off with Brumbies (H), Force (A), Moana (A), Reds (H). If they can take the Brumbies at home, they might just get enough momentum to win all four of those.

• Force are on two wins, with their only saving grace being that they have 3/5 of their remaining games in Perth. They should lose to the Chiefs this week, however they'll back themselves against the Drua and Tahs (H). Would have them on four wins with Reds (A) and Brumbies (H) remaining.

That being said, I think the Rebels don't win another game (5 Wins), Reds win three (7 Wins), Drua get one win (5 Wins), Highlanders get two wins (5 Wins), Moana don't win another game (3 Wins), Crusaders get three wins (5 Wins), Waratahs get 3 wins (5 Wins), Force get 2 wins (4 Wins)... this is if I have done my maths right.

Would leave the Reds a clear 5th, and with five teams from 6-10th all on five wins, sending it to BPs, which probably sees the Rebels 6th, Crusaders 7th and Highlanders 8th.

Highlanders next two games though are massive in the context of the whole playoff race. If they win both, Moana and the Crusaders almost certainly out of it. If they lose both, they're out of it, and the final round-robin match between Moana and the Crusaders could be like a Round of 16 game (even though it is a 12-team comp lol)

Ireland have been shit too - but I'm sorry - this is just fucking boring. You compare this product to the NPC and Super Rugby and it is night and day.

This isn't rugby I'm afraid. It's two phases then box kick, it's pedantic rulings, it's the TMO reffing from the sideline - it's just straight horseshit.

@sparky said in All Blacks 2024 - looking forward:

@MajorRage Ardie overlooked for the captaincy, albeit for a very good candidate in Scott Barrett

Akira Ioane, nowhere to be seen, although he's signed to go to Japan.

Hoskins Sotutu not included, but given some encouraging comments by the Head Coach.

We might not like it, but questions will be asked if there's a pattern here?

The irony here. Sotutu misses out to Sititi. Ioane misses out to Finau.

The Barrett as captain has nothing to do with racism, and everything to do with being a trusted ally.

I’ve just watch Tupou Vaa’i put in some of the better back to back performances we’ve seen and Ardie Savea play great rugby back at openside, yet people are moaning about the loose forward mix?

Sititi was great last year, deservedly comes back in and gets a go at 8. Parker, who was everyone’s favourite bolter also comes in presumably as the backup 8.

Kirifi, who many wanted to be given a chance, is retained, and Lakai, who went past Papalii last year, and by most accounts is a very special player returns from injury.

Squabbling about Sotutu (and Akira Ioane!) is a waste of time. They want fetchers at 7, and Papalii isn’t that.

Jacobson possibly fortunate, but on paper he shapes as the last picked loosie anyway. This meltdown is crazy.

@BerniesCorner said in RWC SF: All Blacks v Argentina:

Play Roigard. He was awesome against SA. Give him time against Argentina

I don't know if this is satire, but I'm going to lose my mind if people spend all week moaning about Roigard.

For right or for wrong they think Christie is their second best, and World Cup SFs aren't about giving people time. Smith will probably play 70 minutes minimum, unless we are up by like 20 with 20 to play, but I can't see that.

If it is one score, wouldn't be stunned to see Smith go the 80 again.

I felt like this was worthy of a thread of its own in regards to squad selection. This is my guess for the ABs Squad and ABs XV Squad. Hard to know how many there will be in the XV, but I am picking around 30 for them and 36+1 for the ABs, as am expecting Bower to be with them as a 7th prop:

All Blacks
Props:
Ethan de Groot
Tamaiti Williams
Ollie Norris
Fletcher Newell
Pasilio Tosi
Tevita Mafileo
George Bower (Injury Cover)

All Blacks XV
Props:
Xavier Numia
Pouri Rakete-Stones
Josh Fusitua
George Dyer
Josh Bartlett

Not Available: Tyrel Lomax, Ofa Tu'ungafasi & Saula Ma'u (XV)
Notes: Could be a bit of a race to the bottom at prop for the XV if they do pick Bower for the ABs. Bartlett seems to fit the mould of Tosi and Norris as an impactful ball carrier so they may look to get him into the environment.

All Blacks
Hookers:
Codie Taylor
Samisoni Taukei'aho
Brodie McAllister

All Blacks XV
Hookers:
George Bell
Kurt Eklund
Jack Taylor

Not Available: Asafo Aumua
Notes: If Aumua is really out with concussion, that has to be a major concern, but he has not been sighted for a while. Also would not be stunned if Bell and McAllister were the other way around.

All Blacks
Locks:
Scott Barrett (c)
Fabian Holland
Patrick Tuipulotu
Sam Darry

All Blacks XV
Locks:
Josh Lord
Naitoa Ah Kuoi
Josh Beehre

Not Available: Tupou Vaa'i
Notes: I would have Darry over Lord, but it is hard to keep up with who they rank higher out of those two. Deserved call-up for Beehre to the XV. Suspect Lord ends up as cover for the ABs at some point, in which case they will need another one. Walker-Leawere has been in and around it, so he is the most likely. Antonio Shalfoon won't be far off it either.

All Blacks
Loose Forwards:
Simon Parker
Ardie Savea
Peter Lakai
Wallace Sititi
Luke Jacobson
Du'Plessis Kirifi
Samipeni Finau

All Blacks XV
Loose Forwards:
TK Howden
Devan Flanders
Dalton Papalii
Sean Withy
Christian Lio-Willie (c)

Not Available: Corey Kellow & Ethan Blackadder
Notes: Think if Vaa'i was fit, Finau would have been squeezed down into the XV, but in the absence of an outstanding candidate to replace him, he survives for now. Howden to be rewarded for a good year I think, and is a Jamie Joseph favourite, and he should have some influence. Kellow, had he stayed fit I think would have been a bolter to blow past Kirifi into the top squad. Haig was there last year, so if he is seen as a player of the future he may be retained as a continuity pick. Bound to be a few injuries at play here.

All Blacks
Halfbacks:
Cam Roigard
Cortez Ratima
Finlay Christie

All Blacks XV
Halfbacks:
Dylan Pledger
Kyle Preston
Xavier Roe

Not Available: Noah Hotham
Notes: Probably the position with the most intrigue given the emergence of Pledger? I think they resist the urge to rush him as the number three, so the ginger will be retained, but hard to see him playing outside of the Wales test. I would not be surprised if he links up with the ABs top squad after the two XV games. Fakatava deserves to be here on form, and given Joseph is coach, he may sneak in, but otherwise expecting them in the same order they were called up.

All Blacks
First Fives:
Beauden Barrett
Damian McKenzie

All Blacks XV
First Fives:
Josh Jacomb
Rivez Reihana

Not Available: Stephen Perofeta
Notes: Perofeta has been unsighted, so am assuming he is out. Jacomb is the obvious one, and they may only pick one if they decide to release Love down into the XV for one of the two games. Reihana leads the chasing group, though there is daylight.

All Blacks
Midfielders:
Jordie Barrett
Quinn Tupaea
Billy Proctor
Rieko Ioane
Anton Lienert-Brown

All Blacks XV
Midfielders:
Dallas McLeod
Brayden Ennor
David Havili
AJ Lam

Not Available: Timoci Tavatavanawai & Riley Higgins (XV)
Notes: Assuming they pick five in the top squad, it will be those five. Quite funny that we have gone full circle and realised that Rieko is actually a centre, and a very good defensive centre at that. The XV will be continuity picks I think. Ennor a bolter for the top side over ALB, but otherwise McLeod and Havili have been in and around it. Have Lam down as the other centre, though they might go with a bit more of a bolter than that

All Blacks
Outside Backs:
Caleb Clarke
Leicester Fainga'anuku
Leroy Carter
Emoni Narawa
Will Jordan
Ruben Love

All Blacks XV
Outside Backs:
Sevu Reece
Caleb Tangitau
Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens
Etene Nanai-Seturo
Fehi Fineanganofo

Not Available: ?
Notes: Hard to see a world where the ABs don't go for those six outsides. If Narawa is out, am picking they will go Tangitau over Reece. Just seems they have made the decision to move on from the latter. The XV have many options, because a lot of them are very similar. Pretty confident in the first three, less sure on the last two.

Can only think he was promised a special bench would be built for Michael Manson.

I think this is probably worthy of its own thread, but feel free to merge if not - purely on the squad v France to see how close to 35/35 anyone can get - this is what I am predicting. I'd imagine the squad is now locked in barring injuries - one game shouldn't really change anything.

PROPS:
Tamaiti Williams (Crusaders)
Ethan de Groot (Highlanders)
George Bower (Crusaders)
Tyrel Lomax (Hurricanes)
Fletcher Newell (Crusaders)
Pasilio Tosi (Hurricanes)

HOOKERS:
Codie Taylor (Crusaders)
Samisoni Taukei'aho (Chiefs)
George Bell (Crusaders)

LOCKS:
Scott Barrett (c) (Crusaders)
Tupou Vaa'i (Chiefs)
Patrick Tuipulotu (Blues)
Fabian Holland (Highlanders)

LOOSE FORWARDS:
Ethan Blackadder (Crusaders)
Samipeni Finau (Chiefs)
Ardie Savea (Moana Pasifika)
Peter Lakai (Hurricanes)
Dalton Papalii (Blues)
Wallace Sititi (Chiefs)
Christian Lio-Willie (Crusaders)

HALFBACKS:
Cameron Roigard (Hurricanes)
Cortez Ratima (Chiefs)
Noah Hotham (Crusaders)

FIRST FIVES:
Damian McKenzie (Chiefs)
Beauden Barrett (Blues)

MIDFIELDERS:
Jordie Barrett (Hurricanes)
Quinn Tupaea (Chiefs)
Rieko Ioane (Blues)
Billy Proctor (Hurricanes)
David Havili (Crusaders)

OUTSIDE BACKS:
Caleb Clarke (Blues)
Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens (Highlanders)
Sevu Reece (Crusaders)
Will Jordan (Crusaders)
Ruben Love (Hurricanes)

Unavailable due to injury: Asafo Aumua (Hurricanes), Simon Parker (Chiefs), Anton Lienert-Brown (Chiefs), Caleb Tangitau (Highlanders)

@Machpants I think 3 is a little low. Taylor was one of, if not the best All Black on defence. Lineout was a shambles, but not solely to blame. Did give away that dumb penalty, but he carried well, so a real mixed game.

@Kiwiwomble People are moaning for moaning sake - it’s boring. The loosies went well against France, and the only changes are the addition of Parker and Lakai.

Papalii was only ever there as cover, as I say they want a fetcher at 7, and he is not that. The things Papalii did well, don’t compliment the rest of the trio.

I think the big positive is the coaches have actually identified what they want each position to do, they clearly want a huge blindside who is a lineout option (Vaa’i, Parker & Finau), a fetcher at 7, and a ball playing eight.

Big issue was taking the three at 30-26... was asking a lot to get back down the other end, a confident All Black side puts that in the corner and goes for the kill.

TSF now stands for The Sotutu Forum

@Mr-Fish said in All Blacks v France I:

Holland's received a lot of praise but I was a little bit underwhelmed.

He didn't really put a foot wrong but he also didn't do anything to suggest he's a better option that Lord or Tuipulotu at this stage. I'm absolutely not saying he shouldn't be in there, I'm as keen to see him given a go as anyone else and I'd love for him to be the new Brodie Retallick, but I've not yet (yet is key, obviously) seen anything from Holland to suggest he's anything more than a safe pair of hands in the second row.

Again, very happy to get him getting some minutes and would certainly keep giving him time in the saddle, but it's a bit unfair that we expect the loose forward to all be dynamic carriers of the ball or threats at the breakdown when the bar for Holland seems so low?

He dominated the lineout in a way Tuipulotu couldn’t, and Lord hasn’t. He works hard and makes a ton of tackles (more than both those two).

What are you looking for from him? Locks don’t tend to make line breaks…

The midfield is shaping as the most fascinating battle for the All Blacks squad this year. There are loads of players in the frame, but few who should/are actually shoe-ins to make the squad.

The Incumbents
Jordie Barrett - The incumbent second five is currently playing at Leinster, so won't be able to be compared to those playing Super Rugby. Has the best long-range kicking game, and is a certainty to hold his spot in the squad.

Rieko Ioane - The incumbent centre has split opinions for the ABs, and a lacklustre start to the Super Rugby season won't be helping his case. You wonder whether a rumoured sabbatical would have been a good option for him too. On current form, could he struggle to make the squad?

Anton Lienert-Brown - Another who split opinions, the incumbent bench option had some decent showings last year, but hardly enough to nail his spot. Looks good in a good Chiefs backline, but has equally been outshone by others. Should be under-pressure.

David Havili - Give me strength. Should be nowhere near it - Next.

Billy Proctor - Impressed in limited chances for the ABs last year. Has a big chance to show his quality if he returns to a struggling Canes side. Due back in the next couple of weeks if the positive reports are to be believed, though conflicting reports suggest it could be much longer, which would derail an ABs push.

The NZ EOYT Boys

Quinn Tupaea - Just three rounds in, but he has started the year like a house on fire, and looks back to his best - if not even better than his previous level. On current form, he walks back into the ABs squad, and has serious claims to start.

Riley Higgins - Due back in a few weeks, and will have ground to make up. Was tipped to be the big mover this year, but his own injuries and his team's struggling form may mean he has to wait for the time being, but with a good run over the second half of the season, it could be the case of performing at the right time.

AJ Lam - Has been ineffectual for the Blues through the first three rounds. A good player, but probably one who has looked slightly better than he is because of the quality around him. Unless he can prove otherwise, his All Blacks chances seem slim.

Dallas McLeod - Benched for the first two for the Crusaders, but likely to start this week. With a big season, the current coaching group will have him in mind. Certainly showed he has the attributes for Canterbury, and was picked by the last coaching group for good reason. One to watch.

The Chasing Pack
Timoci Tavatavanawai - Easily the biggest mover over the first three rounds, after making what seems to be a full-time switch to the midfield. A tougher outing versus Moana Pasifika, but still beat several defenders and won three turnovers. May not be the man to start at 12, but he looks a very enticing bench option.

Brayden Ennor - Don't forget about Ennor. If he can put a run of games together, he might be the smartest centre in the country, or at the very least one of the better distributors. Seems to be the wrong age profile though, and can't stay fit.

Peter Umaga-Jensen - Seems a longshot, but was capped by the All Blacks for a reason. Midfield injuries are presenting him a chance to have a genuine run of games. A return to black does look highly unlikely that said.

The Could be Worth a Look if Bizarre things Occur
Tanielu Tele'a - Looking good in an improved Highlanders team. Nowhere near All Black quality as things stand, but might be in the frame for the NZ XV

Corey Evans/Xavi Taele/Zarn Sullivan - Would suggest any of these guys are All Blacks this year, but the way things going, someone else is going to get a chance in the Blues midfield at some point, and if they spark a turnaround in form, they will always be in the international conversation.